Sean D. Emory
Founding Partner & CIO of Avory & Co., Avory Foundational ETF (AVRY)
Cloudflare at 38x NTM revenue and 150x NTM EBITDA is insane, so a decent return from here is unlikely even though it is the leader. That has never happened before without massive acceleration in growth rates and margin expansion. x.com
Cloudflare has one of the most ludicrous valuations relative to its actual performance. @ecommerceshares notes it has run since 2009 yet still has a -10% operating margin, surviving because fund managers keep buying the new stock it issues every quarter, equal to 18% of revenue, so breakeven is never required. x.com
Cloudflare's importance becomes clearest during outages, when disruption exposes how much of the internet depends on its platform. That dependence makes the stock hard to sell despite its obscene valuation. x.com
Cloudflare is a short because 45-50x sales is too much to pay for 35% growth. x.com
Cloudflare's roughly $100 billion valuation is hard to justify because it is unclear how shareholders make money at this price. A post the author replies to calls it an amazing company and product at nosebleed multiples; another notes it converts only about 30% of revenue into cash, and stock-based compensation makes that worse. Positive EPS alongside negative net income reflects non-GAAP versus GAAP figures. x.com x.com x.com x.com
Cloudflare deserves its premium multiple far more than CrowdStrike does. Cloudflare is growing about 40% against CrowdStrike's mid-20s, and it adds a call option on agentic expansion. Both trade at nosebleed valuations. x.com
Cloudflare is extremely expensive at 44 times trailing twelve-month sales, a valuation that makes Datadog look cheap. x.com
Cloudflare's 44x revenue valuation still does not make sense, despite its benefit from a network control point. Matthew Sigel reports that nearly every shopping site he tries blocks Instinct and Muse. x.com
Cloudflare is a key enabler of agentic AI and has been overly punished in the software selloff, setting up a 2026 re-rating. It supports OpenClaw, the self-hosted autonomous agent popular since February, as it shifts toward autonomous AI workflows. Paying customers rose 40%, yet only about 1% of 25 million websites pay, and it signed a landmark $130 million contract. Relative strength versus the software ETF and a 30%+ rally after washouts below the 200-day average point the same way. x.com
Cloudflare's valuation leaves almost no return even under generous assumptions, so buyers at $330 risk being patsies. If it grows 15% every year through 2041, with non-GAAP margins rising to 50% and a 6% terminal value, the stock would compound at only about 0.6% a year. x.com