Cloudflare's 44x revenue valuation still does not make sense, despite its benefit from a network control point. Matthew Sigel reports that nearly every shopping site he tries blocks Instinct and Muse. x.com
Stone Fox Capital
Founder, CIO & Portfolio Manager of Stone Fox Capital
Cloudflare cannot justify a bullish view at a 10000x revenue valuation. x.com
Cloudflare's valuation, about 28.5x EV/ARR and 453x run-rate GAAP EBIT, leaves little room for its competitive risks. Its SASE and developer-platform businesses face Zscaler, Palo Alto and hyperscalers with far bigger budgets, and OpenAI and Anthropic may keep inference on their own backends. The bull case is crisp and arguably priced in: bot security and edge workloads matter more as agents spread, growth sped up from 27% to 34%, and weekly agent requests doubled in January. x.com
Cloudflare's importance becomes clearest during outages, when disruption exposes how much of the internet depends on its platform. That dependence makes the stock hard to sell despite its obscene valuation. x.com
Cloudflare is difficult to buy at about 30x EV/sales because a lot is already priced in, even after a good quarter. Q1 revenue rose 34% to $640 million versus $623 million expected and EPS of $0.25 beat, with strong AI and agentic traction, but remaining performance obligations of $2.54 billion fell short of the roughly $2.61 billion expected. It also announced a 20% workforce reduction. x.com
Cloudflare has one of the most ludicrous valuations relative to its actual performance. @ecommerceshares notes it has run since 2009 yet still has a -10% operating margin, surviving because fund managers keep buying the new stock it issues every quarter, equal to 18% of revenue, so breakeven is never required. x.com
Cloudflare deserves its premium multiple far more than CrowdStrike does. Cloudflare is growing about 40% against CrowdStrike's mid-20s, and it adds a call option on agentic expansion. Both trade at nosebleed valuations. x.com
Cloudflare is a short because 45-50x sales is too much to pay for 35% growth. x.com
Cloudflare is extremely expensive at 44 times trailing twelve-month sales, a valuation that makes Datadog look cheap. x.com
Cloudflare's Q2 beat-and-raise shows growth holding above 35% as it becomes an AI-era platform for networking, security, edge computing and agent infrastructure. Revenue rose 36% to $696M versus $666M expected, current RPO grew 35%, and full-year revenue guidance rose again to $2.86-2.87B. Its CEO says traffic is shifting toward AI-to-AI and agent-to-agent interaction. Non-GAAP gross margin fell 320 bps to 73.1% and layoff charges drove a GAAP loss, but neither affects cash flow or guidance. … Show more
Cloudflare's edge is a real AI-crawl chokepoint, but the price is the problem. FedRAMP High clearance on August 10 opens federal national-security workloads, and since traffic transits its edge, pay-per-crawl and bot rules are enforced there. Q2 revenue of $696M rose 36%, confirming the thesis without changing it. At 40x EV/sales, 182x forward earnings and a -8% GAAP operating margin, a de-rating needs no bad news; adding waits for ~$268. Direct lab-publisher licensing could bypass the toll. … Show more