Insufficient substrate supply may cap AMD's growth because the company has not secured enough capacity. The author says limited substrate availability drove AMD's lowered guidance, making supply-chain execution the constraint on how far it can grow. This adds an execution risk to the earlier concern that AMD is too expensive to buy despite strong results. x.com  x.com 

AMD and Intel look expensive only if agentic AI fails to accelerate CPU demand, and sell-side estimates probably do not yet capture all of that acceleration. AMD trades at 58x and Intel at 68x NTM EPS, with the sell side modeling EPS CAGRs through CY2029 of 66% and 82%. Beating CY2029 estimates of $31.50 and $4.75 by 30-40% would lift those CAGRs to about 78% and 97%. Despite frothy multiples, that EPS growth is hard to argue with. x.com 

TSMC's latest results point to AI chip demand still running ahead of supply, supporting the semiconductor and equipment trade. Cantor says TSMC raised its 2026 revenue outlook again, guided December-quarter sales above consensus and held 65-67% gross-margin guidance through the N2 ramp; its bullish sector read names Nvidia, Broadcom, AMD, ASML, Applied Materials, Lam Research and KLA. Jensen Huang says AI labs need not reach trillions in revenue to justify the buildout. x.com  x.com 

Semiconductor trade faces a capex growth ceiling even if AI delivers what bulls expect. Spending cannot compound at 70-100% a year indefinitely, and compute per dollar roughly doubles every two years, so the same budget buys more capacity later. Today's chip valuations also demand years of 20% AI earnings growth beyond 2028: roughly 10.9 extra years for AMD, 8.9 for ASML, 7 for Marvell and 6.4 for TSMC, versus 1.6 for Broadcom and 0.8 for Nvidia; Micron needs none under the chart's assumptions. … Show more

Austria Technologie & Systemtechnik (AT&S) is a bullish pick. x.com 

AT&S looks set to move further into package assembly as substrates and assembly converge. It is expanding in India toward advanced packaging and testing, while AMD, its number one customer, is constantly looking at packaging innovation, per Lisa Su. AT&S already embeds components and silicon bridges inside substrates, so assembling more of the package is a natural evolution. It is reportedly already in talks with SHMD on the India expansion, though nothing is official. x.com  x.com  x.com 

AMD looks overvalued because its price already assumes near-perfect execution. Even if revenue grows 35% a year, per Lisa Su's guidance, from $41B to about $185B by 2031, with 25% FCF margins, the $1.07T valuation is about 21x 2031 free cash flow today. At a 45% growth rate it would still be 16x, which is not cheap. Su is known for beating expectations, but expectations are now high. x.com  x.com  x.com  x.com 

AT&S's re-rating is underway, but the market has not priced what its Kulim plant becomes at scale; it is preferable to Japanese substrate makers Ibiden, Shinko and Toppan. The Kulim ramp drove an 18% sequential revenue jump, AMD is the anchor customer, more AI and HPC clients have joined, and five major customers are targeted by fiscal 2027. Free cash flow has turned positive at €223M. With Chongqing serving China and Kulim the West, AT&S collects tolls on both sides of the geopolitical divide. … Show more

AMD's valuation leaves little room for error even after stellar earnings. Sustaining 40% annual growth to 2030 gives $200B revenue and $80B net income at a 40% margin; at 20x earnings that is $1.6T, or about $990B discounted at 10%, versus $845B today. The market fears its acceleration coincides with the final stage of AI capex growth, as customers diversify from NVIDIA, a tailwind that may fade as capex growth slows after 2027. A solid hold, but new buyers should wait for a bigger decline. … Show more

AMD's valuation is insane for a huge, cyclical chip company: at $408 it sells for about 90x its annualized Q2 GAAP earnings guidance. The non-GAAP figure analysts use strips out a massive amount of stock compensation, so it understates the true cost. x.com  x.com