AT&S looks set to move further into package assembly as substrates and assembly converge. It is expanding in India toward advanced packaging and testing, while AMD, its number one customer, is constantly looking at packaging innovation, per Lisa Su. AT&S already embeds components and silicon bridges inside substrates, so assembling more of the package is a natural evolution. It is reportedly already in talks with SHMD on the India expansion, though nothing is official. x.com  x.com  x.com 

AT&S's valuation looks too low relative to some peers given its Intel and AMD revenue exposure; ChatGPT-generated estimates of that exposure may prove too low for FY28. x.com  x.com 

Ajinomoto, Nittobo, Ibiden and AT&S sit in an ABF substrate supply chain consolidated into near-monopolies, where the AI chip bottleneck keeps moving. Nvidia, Intel and AMD are prepaying for suppliers' factories, with Ibiden receiving over 90 billion yen; companies that size do not prepay unless out of options. Ajinomoto holds over 95% of the substrate film market, and Apple, Nvidia and Google are chasing Nittobo's glass fabric. A capex cycle ending in overcapacity is the risk. x.com  x.com 

AT&S's Kulim expansion with AMD confirms the customer-funded model: AMD locks in capacity while AT&S keeps the margin. The €1.5-2.0B of capex is funded by long-term customer commitments, and the shares jumped about 29% on the news. As the only European maker of high-end IC substrates, AT&S is positioned as Europe's answer to the ABF substrate bottleneck. x.com 

AMD and Nvidia face a growing capital burden from substrates without the benefit of foundry margin stacking. Each is committing $1 billion to the substrate ecosystem; AMD has also publicly committed $10 billion to its Taiwan supply chain, more than three times its Q2 net income. That capital is unavailable for R&D and product development, while their gross margins are flat or shrinking. Intel's gross margin is growing as customers prepay its foundry for substrates. x.com 

IC substrates are Schmid's more relevant growth driver today because demand is already high and rising. Schmid customers Ibiden and Unimicron are expanding capacity with NVIDIA support; higher order intake supports the prospect of more equipment orders. Its balance sheet has improved, and the risk/reward looks attractive at current levels despite volatility. Glass substrates may take another one to two years to matter commercially. This is a personal assessment, not a buy recommendation. x.com  … Show more

Ibiden is overpriced and set to lose market share, so AT&S, Kinsus and Ajinomoto are the better substrate positions. This runs against FundaAI (@FundaAI), which argues that high-end ABF capacity is failing to keep pace with AI silicon and sees rerating room for Ibiden at about 45 times FY3/28 earnings. x.com 

AT&S's re-rating is underway, but the market has not priced what its Kulim plant becomes at scale; it is preferable to Japanese substrate makers Ibiden, Shinko and Toppan. The Kulim ramp drove an 18% sequential revenue jump, AMD is the anchor customer, more AI and HPC clients have joined, and five major customers are targeted by fiscal 2027. Free cash flow has turned positive at €223M. With Chongqing serving China and Kulim the West, AT&S collects tolls on both sides of the geopolitical divide. … Show more

As custom AI chips become normal, the scarce asset may be the capacity to build them, since every design passes through the same packaging, substrate, PCB material and manufacturing bottlenecks. Meta with MediaTek and Amazon with Alchip show chip design going modular. That favors TSMC for manufacturing, Alchip for ASIC back-end work, Samsung Electro-Mechanics, Ibiden and AT&S for high-end substrates, and Shengyi Technology if AI PCB material stays tight. The bottleneck map widened. x.com  x.com 

Amkor Technology's story is only beginning, as a smaller version of TSMC. Expect steady, consistent growth over a horizon longer than the end of 2027, not a quick 2-3x. x.com  x.com