AMD and Nvidia face a growing capital burden from substrates without the benefit of foundry margin stacking. Each is committing $1 billion to the substrate ecosystem; AMD has also publicly committed $10 billion to its Taiwan supply chain, more than three times its Q2 net income. That capital is unavailable for R&D and product development, while their gross margins are flat or shrinking. Intel's gross margin is growing as customers prepay its foundry for substrates. x.com 

AT&S looks set to move further into package assembly as substrates and assembly converge. It is expanding in India toward advanced packaging and testing, while AMD, its number one customer, is constantly looking at packaging innovation, per Lisa Su. AT&S already embeds components and silicon bridges inside substrates, so assembling more of the package is a natural evolution. It is reportedly already in talks with SHMD on the India expansion, though nothing is official. x.com  x.com  x.com 

AT&S's re-rating is underway, but the market has not priced what its Kulim plant becomes at scale; it is preferable to Japanese substrate makers Ibiden, Shinko and Toppan. The Kulim ramp drove an 18% sequential revenue jump, AMD is the anchor customer, more AI and HPC clients have joined, and five major customers are targeted by fiscal 2027. Free cash flow has turned positive at €223M. With Chongqing serving China and Kulim the West, AT&S collects tolls on both sides of the geopolitical divide. … Show more

Austria Technologie & Systemtechnik (AT&S) is a bullish pick. x.com 

Insufficient substrate supply may cap AMD's growth because the company has not secured enough capacity. The author says limited substrate availability drove AMD's lowered guidance, making supply-chain execution the constraint on how far it can grow. This adds an execution risk to the earlier concern that AMD is too expensive to buy despite strong results. x.com  x.com 

AT&S's valuation looks too low relative to some peers given its Intel and AMD revenue exposure; ChatGPT-generated estimates of that exposure may prove too low for FY28. x.com  x.com 

Customer prepayments of about $3.2B for Amkor's capacity exceed its roughly $2.5B planned capex this year, funding the buildout ahead of delivery. Buy, with a $48 target. x.com 

ASE Technology's packaging tightness now extends beyond AI to analog and mature-node chips, supporting price hikes. Lead times are up over 30%; FC/Wirebond/QFN hikes of 10–80% and CoWoS hikes of 10–20% are expected in 3Q–4Q26. Higher AMD server CPU wafer allocation, CoWoS adoption for Venice, Verano and future AMD CPUs, and limited competition support LEAP growth. LEAP revenue is forecast at US$4bn/$8bn in 2026/27, above guidance. The target rises to NT$843 from NT$754 on 25x 2027E EPS. x.com 

IC substrates are Schmid's more relevant growth driver today because demand is already high and rising. Schmid customers Ibiden and Unimicron are expanding capacity with NVIDIA support; higher order intake supports the prospect of more equipment orders. Its balance sheet has improved, and the risk/reward looks attractive at current levels despite volatility. Glass substrates may take another one to two years to matter commercially. This is a personal assessment, not a buy recommendation. x.com  … Show more

As custom AI chips become normal, the scarce asset may be the capacity to build them, since every design passes through the same packaging, substrate, PCB material and manufacturing bottlenecks. Meta with MediaTek and Amazon with Alchip show chip design going modular. That favors TSMC for manufacturing, Alchip for ASIC back-end work, Samsung Electro-Mechanics, Ibiden and AT&S for high-end substrates, and Shengyi Technology if AI PCB material stays tight. The bottleneck map widened. x.com  x.com