Anndy Lian
Intergovernmental Blockchain Adviser, Investor/Author, Web4 & AI
The euro should stay resilient because higher European interest rates make it structurally far sturdier than the yen, especially with so many shorts placed against it. US selling of euros to buy yen was too small to overwhelm broader euro-bullish macro trends in a market trading over $7.5 trillion a day. x.comÂ
The US dollar appears to have finally cracked, which would be good for the euro and the yen, along with gold, bitcoin, silver, copper and bonds. x.comÂ
France's fiscal bind and widening French-German bond spread raise contagion risk across Europe and threaten further euro weakness against the dollar. There is no easy economic way out for France, a problem that may apply to many EU countries. The 10-year spread is nearing the 190-basis-point level seen during the November 2011 eurozone crisis; the euro should continue to weaken against the dollar. x.com x.comÂ
The US dollar looks set for a multi-year bear cycle because a multipolar world needs fewer dollars. Reserve managers are diversifying, trade settles in more currencies and central banks accumulate gold instead. Against an equally weighted basket, the dollar's half-century sequence of lower secular highs is topping again on its 7-to-10-year cycle. Every major commodity bull of the past century ran alongside a falling dollar, which could also bring a second inflation wave. x.comÂ
The dollar's longer-term prospects are very negative: 2008 showed the dollar-based system was built on quicksand, and 2026 showed the US has lost its leadership of the Western-oriented world. Both are very positive for gold. First, though, the dollar might rise on a flight to liquidity. x.com x.com x.comÂ
Rising French sovereign yields signal the disintegration of France and the EU/euro. France's 10-year yield is now above 5%, with an 8-9% target; EUR/USD's 1.12 level still acts as support, though it shows a huge negative divergence. x.comÂ
The US dollar is supported by hawkish comments from Fed Chair Kevin Warsh, which led traders to sharply increase bets on a rate hike as soon as September. The Dollar Index trades around 99.6 after a sharp rise in the previous session. x.comÂ
The US dollar looks more bullish than bearish because it is priced against other currencies that are hit harder by oil. Most countries' bond yields are rising, not just America's, and the US has the world's most dominant economy, which AI is accelerating relative to others. Still, trading currencies makes little sense when stocks are rising 25%+ a year. x.comÂ
The euro loses as the EU centralizes power in Brussels, which accelerates capital flight. Removing national vetoes on foreign policy, which Commission President von der Leyen backed on April 14 as a way to avoid systemic blockages, is the fifth such decision against diversification. It follows tighter stablecoin rules, crypto regulation under AMLR in 2027, a €10,000 cap on cash transactions and 212,000 banking jobs expected to be lost to AI by 2030. x.comÂ
The US dollar is becoming a black hole for global liquidity, driven by Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's hawkish stance and a wave of AI-driven capital flowing back into US tech. Net long dollar positions have surged to $29.4 billion. BofA cut its EUR/USD target to 1.15 from 1.20 and now expects three more hikes this year, while Man Group sees another 5% dollar upside by year-end. This is an AI-monopoly story as much as a rate story, with capital leaving stagnant overseas markets to fund US computing. … Show more