Tom Shaughnessy
Founding Partner at Delphi Ventures, Co-Founder of Delphi Digital
Bitcoin is the simplest way to own a coming wealth transfer from older bondholders to assets young people hold, because the government will never stop spending and will mass print money. That leaves the dollar worthless and lifts bitcoin, while tech stocks held by younger investors far outpace inflation. Per @WClemente, the transfer will likely run through negative real rates. x.comÂ
Marathon Fusion's claim that it made stable gold from mercury is a reason to prefer Bitcoin to gold. The company says the demonstration beat CERN's record by a factor of 10. Sell gold and buy Bitcoin. x.comÂ
Central bank reserves will never let gold fade. That is the answer to @legitamit's concern about gold's eventual risk after Marathon Fusion's claim of turning mercury into gold. x.comÂ
Bitcoin's rebound faces constrained upside from dealer hedging and weak US spot demand. Seventy percent of dealer gamma sits at $75,000-$82,000 ahead of Friday's $11B options expiry; the Coinbase premium had no positive days in October and an $83,000 fakeout keeps traders defensive. The Fed hold spurred relief, ETFs added $110.34M and $176M, and record US debt drives long-term accumulation. A hot PCE print would raise December hike odds and pressure Bitcoin through higher yields. x.com x.comÂ
Gold's scarcity is vulnerable to synthetic creation. Marathon Fusion says it demonstrated high-rate conversion of mercury into stable gold. By contrast, no 21,000,001st ZEC can ever be made; Zcash is the 21st century's store of value. x.comÂ
Bitcoin benefits as the risk of creating gold through alchemy has entered public consciousness. That perceived threat to gold's scarcity supports a long Bitcoin position as a persistent theme. x.comÂ
The Fed's continuing inflation focus and prospect of expensive money for longer are eroding Bitcoin's initial relief from the rate hold. At the 3.75%-4.00% hold, two officials voted to hike; Warsh left further tightening open but did not commit to a December hike. BlackRock's Bitcoin ETF drew $136M yesterday, its third straight inflow session, showing buyers are still present. x.com x.com x.comÂ
A gold-trade unwind might be the real catalyst to send Bitcoin higher, rather than the AI-trade unwind many expect. The gold unwind is already happening: since late July, gold futures are down 0.7% while Bitcoin is up 26.5%. x.com x.comÂ
Gold-making machines are real, undermining gold's scarcity. Gold goes to zero; unlike Bitcoin, whose supply is fixed at 21 million, new gold can be made. x.comÂ
A major exchange hack looks set to push Bitcoin down to a higher low. DeItaone reported $2.77 billion in Binance-wallet outflows amid drain suspicions, initially without confirmation of a hack. The hack was later described as confirmed and larger than first thought; despite initial assurances, user funds are probably not fully safe. x.com x.com x.com x.com x.comÂ
Gold will see a diamond-like price decline if lab-grown gold takes hold. The quoted post says lab-grown diamonds halved diamond prices since 2016; gold is currently the largest asset class on Earth, so its money moving into Bitcoin could be consequential. x.comÂ