Salesforce can deliver a 30% annual return, and that target is conservative. A modest dividend, cash flow growth and even slight multiple expansion are enough to get there. x.comÂ
Brad Thomas
Founder & Lead Analyst of Wide Moat Research
Salesforce, at the forefront of CRM for decades, is far likelier to build an even better product for the AI era than companies are to build their own CRM, making it the favorite SaaS name. The case examines what it would take for Salesforce to compound about 27% a year over the next five years. x.com x.com x.comÂ
Salesforce is betting on itself with a $27 billion stock buyback, which drove most of its very big earnings-per-share beat, and investors should bet on it too. Price target: $265 per share. x.comÂ
Salesforce is fully priced, even a little more than worth paying, for roughly 12% annual growth: trailing revenue of $43B is expected to reach $63B by 2030. A lower price would be needed for a long-term position, and it is not a buy-and-forget stock. x.com x.comÂ
Salesforce's strong free cash flow and healthy balance sheet support its setup as enterprise AI adoption, Agentforce and AI-driven workflow automation advance. Its earnings gap on four times average volume has been followed by a tightening formation. x.com x.comÂ
Salesforce's $25 billion accelerated share repurchase, the largest ASR in history and half of its $50 billion buyback program, should have an EPS impact people don't yet understand. Its numbers already made it very attractive, and the initial delivery of about 103M shares shows how bullish Marc Benioff is. x.comÂ
Okta, Salesforce and Atlassian look insanely expensive at nine times forward revenue against roughly 10% year-over-year growth. Many SaaS firms also have high sales and marketing costs. A commenter flags inference spending, which SaaS investors worry could compress margins; if free cash flow, growth, retention or gross margins weaken, their price-to-sales multiples could collapse. x.com x.com x.com x.comÂ
Salesforce has serious tail upside from explosive growth in agentic AI use, while its 16x P/E prices in only decline, which justified its 20% rally. x.comÂ
Salesforce's proposed Braze acquisition opens another avenue for growth. The $5.7 billion all-cash price raises questions, though quality growth companies command a premium; whether this deal proves worthwhile remains to be seen. Closing is subject to Braze shareholder and regulatory approvals. x.comÂ
Salesforce is no longer cheap enough given how much wallet share core CRM is losing. Organic growth only matches nominal GDP despite a massive increase in agentic spending, and large enterprises increasingly see Salesforce as a data pipe for their own custom agents, an ex-growth business that deserves a low multiple. The Informatica acquisition doubles down on that weak model. Salesforce was too cheap at 12x non-GAAP earnings, but near high-teens it is fair, and terminal risks have not abated. … Show more
Salesforce looks driven by real earnings growth rather than a re-rating, making it a fresh bet on software. Per a @newsinvesting outlook the post quotes, Salesforce shows a genuine earnings inflection and triple-digit Agentforce growth, not just multiple expansion. x.comÂ