Salesforce has serious tail upside from explosive growth in agentic AI use, while its 16x P/E prices in only decline, which justified its 20% rally. x.comÂ
John Tinsman
Founder of AOT Invest, Portfolio Manager of AOTG/AOTS ETFs
Salesforce's strong free cash flow and healthy balance sheet support its setup as enterprise AI adoption, Agentforce and AI-driven workflow automation advance. Its earnings gap on four times average volume has been followed by a tightening formation. x.com x.comÂ
Salesforce, at the forefront of CRM for decades, is far likelier to build an even better product for the AI era than companies are to build their own CRM, making it the favorite SaaS name. The case examines what it would take for Salesforce to compound about 27% a year over the next five years. x.com x.com x.comÂ
Salesforce faces real AI threats: more competition, margin headwinds from compute costs and disruption risk for businesses like Tableau and Service Cloud. Agentforce is showing some momentum, and the stock felt oversold earlier, but it is not attractive at current levels. x.comÂ
Salesforce at a 52-week low trades like a broken business at about 11x forward earnings, yet it is 95% subscription with 77%-plus gross margins and $72 billion of RPO, up 14%. Marc Benioff has repurchased $27.1 billion, cutting diluted shares 10%, and says AI makes Salesforce stronger and the latest quarter had a record volume of large deals. A roughly 1% Anthropic stake bought for about $330 million is now worth over $8 billion, value the market is giving away free. x.comÂ
Salesforce looks driven by real earnings growth rather than a re-rating, making it a fresh bet on software. Per a @newsinvesting outlook the post quotes, Salesforce shows a genuine earnings inflection and triple-digit Agentforce growth, not just multiple expansion. x.comÂ
Salesforce is no longer cheap enough given how much wallet share core CRM is losing. Organic growth only matches nominal GDP despite a massive increase in agentic spending, and large enterprises increasingly see Salesforce as a data pipe for their own custom agents, an ex-growth business that deserves a low multiple. The Informatica acquisition doubles down on that weak model. Salesforce was too cheap at 12x non-GAAP earnings, but near high-teens it is fair, and terminal risks have not abated. … Show more
Salesforce is being treated as a slow, outdated software company even as it keeps growing recurring revenue, expanding margins and converting its massive customer base into earnings. Its latest quarter delivered 16% cRPO growth and a 52% jump in GAAP EPS. The narrative changes when Agentforce and its wider AI strategy become a measurable revenue driver rather than another product announcement. x.comÂ
Salesforce's usage-based AI billing can expand revenue beyond traditional software seats. Agentforce ARR has surpassed $1.5 billion, with year-over-year growth more than doubling, while Data 360 supplies customer data for its agents. At about 14-15x forward earnings and a 7.8-8.2% trailing free-cash-flow yield versus the S&P 500 median of 4.5%, Salesforce is a top candidate for returning institutional capital seeking both defense and growth. x.comÂ
Salesforce is fully priced, even a little more than worth paying, for roughly 12% annual growth: trailing revenue of $43B is expected to reach $63B by 2030. A lower price would be needed for a long-term position, and it is not a buy-and-forget stock. x.com x.comÂ
Salesforce's valuation has fallen even as earnings nearly doubled. Two years ago it earned $5.56 a share and traded at 39 times earnings; today it earns $10.96 a share at 18 times. x.comÂ