Okta, Salesforce and Atlassian look insanely expensive at nine times forward revenue against roughly 10% year-over-year growth. Many SaaS firms also have high sales and marketing costs. A commenter flags inference spending, which SaaS investors worry could compress margins; if free cash flow, growth, retention or gross margins weaken, their price-to-sales multiples could collapse. x.com  x.com  x.com  x.com 

Salesforce is no longer cheap enough given how much wallet share core CRM is losing. Organic growth only matches nominal GDP despite a massive increase in agentic spending, and large enterprises increasingly see Salesforce as a data pipe for their own custom agents, an ex-growth business that deserves a low multiple. The Informatica acquisition doubles down on that weak model. Salesforce was too cheap at 12x non-GAAP earnings, but near high-teens it is fair, and terminal risks have not abated. … Show more

Salesforce, at the forefront of CRM for decades, is far likelier to build an even better product for the AI era than companies are to build their own CRM, making it the favorite SaaS name. The case examines what it would take for Salesforce to compound about 27% a year over the next five years. x.com  x.com  x.com 

Salesforce stock is unlikely to do much because the company has little growth, though the business should be fine long term; not a buy. x.com 

ServiceNow is the mature SaaS name to own because it delivers low-to-mid-20s growth, while Salesforce and Adobe do not. Salesforce's 10-11% growth looks like its sweet spot, with nothing clear to accelerate it, and could slip to 10% or below if a new inflection point hits, even though the product is sticky. @AJacksonHole says that in this market, companies that are not accelerating are being relegated despite operating leverage. x.com  x.com  x.com 

Salesforce at a 52-week low trades like a broken business at about 11x forward earnings, yet it is 95% subscription with 77%-plus gross margins and $72 billion of RPO, up 14%. Marc Benioff has repurchased $27.1 billion, cutting diluted shares 10%, and says AI makes Salesforce stronger and the latest quarter had a record volume of large deals. A roughly 1% Anthropic stake bought for about $330 million is now worth over $8 billion, value the market is giving away free. x.com 

Salesforce's $25 billion accelerated buyback leans on debt in a way that risks leveraging its future, as happened at Fiserv. Fiserv cut its share count 21.5% with debt-funded buybacks averaging $167 a share, and now trades under $60 as growth fell. Salesforce can afford this round with $14 billion of free cash flow, but growth is slowing to single digits, AI isn't yet transforming its ecosystem, and its goodwill-heavy book limits deals. The risk is that multiples compress and it doubles down. … Show more

Salesforce's only bull case is valuation and buybacks, and its 20% drop over five years happened for a reason. Even at about 18x earnings, down from 39x two years ago per @qualtrim, a PEG ratio of 2 means it is not cheap by any means. @StockMarketNerd notes the share count fell 15% year over year on accelerated buybacks, alongside a raised organic growth guide. x.com  x.com 

Salesforce's strong free cash flow and healthy balance sheet support its setup as enterprise AI adoption, Agentforce and AI-driven workflow automation advance. Its earnings gap on four times average volume has been followed by a tightening formation. x.com  x.com 

Snowflake's upside is limited even in a dream scenario. If it grows 35% a year for seven years and EBITDA margins expand from 16% to 43%, ignoring stock compensation, it reaches $43 billion of revenue and $18.5 billion of EBITDA. Once growth slows to about 10%, that is roughly where Salesforce is today, so all that winning yields only about 2x the current enterprise value. x.com