Okta, Salesforce and Atlassian look insanely expensive at nine times forward revenue against roughly 10% year-over-year growth. Many SaaS firms also have high sales and marketing costs. A commenter flags inference spending, which SaaS investors worry could compress margins; if free cash flow, growth, retention or gross margins weaken, their price-to-sales multiples could collapse. x.com  x.com  x.com  x.com 

Salesforce is fully priced, even a little more than worth paying, for roughly 12% annual growth: trailing revenue of $43B is expected to reach $63B by 2030. A lower price would be needed for a long-term position, and it is not a buy-and-forget stock. x.com  x.com 

Salesforce is cheap at about 10x EV/GAAP EBITDA and 10x free cash flow without adding back stock compensation, with about $13B of FCF this year, while growing revenue 10%. At that multiple, private equity's software deals would be deeply underwater on a true mark to market. Per @PodcastAlphaX, Box CEO Aaron Levie uses Salesforce five times more after linking its MCP server to Claude Code, a sign agents increase use of the platform rather than replace it. x.com  x.com 

Salesforce is no longer cheap enough given how much wallet share core CRM is losing. Organic growth only matches nominal GDP despite a massive increase in agentic spending, and large enterprises increasingly see Salesforce as a data pipe for their own custom agents, an ex-growth business that deserves a low multiple. The Informatica acquisition doubles down on that weak model. Salesforce was too cheap at 12x non-GAAP earnings, but near high-teens it is fair, and terminal risks have not abated. … Show more

Salesforce's $25 billion accelerated buyback leans on debt in a way that risks leveraging its future, as happened at Fiserv. Fiserv cut its share count 21.5% with debt-funded buybacks averaging $167 a share, and now trades under $60 as growth fell. Salesforce can afford this round with $14 billion of free cash flow, but growth is slowing to single digits, AI isn't yet transforming its ecosystem, and its goodwill-heavy book limits deals. The risk is that multiples compress and it doubles down. … Show more

Salesforce's valuation has fallen even as earnings nearly doubled. Two years ago it earned $5.56 a share and traded at 39 times earnings; today it earns $10.96 a share at 18 times. x.com 

Salesforce may look cheap, but buying before a genuine reacceleration in its results is gambling. x.com 

Meta offers a more attractive risk/reward than Salesforce at 14 times GAAP EPS. Salesforce was obviously too cheap at 12 times non-GAAP earnings, but nearing the high teens it is closer to fair value, its terminal risks have not abated, and the view on it grows more bearish the further out one looks. x.com  x.com 

Salesforce has serious tail upside from explosive growth in agentic AI use, while its 16x P/E prices in only decline, which justified its 20% rally. x.com 

Salesforce is underweight because it is adding debt for buybacks just as its AI pivot makes growth less certain. It issued $25 billion of senior notes to fund an accelerated buyback, and S&P revised its outlook to negative as leverage nears the 2x downgrade trigger; weak demand forced a 40 basis point concession. Core SaaS growth is slowing to high single digits, and Agentforce plus Data 360, at $2.9 billion ARR, are under 7% of revenue, exposed if AI seat cannibalization outpaces usage credits. … Show more