Salesforce is no longer cheap enough given how much wallet share core CRM is losing. Organic growth only matches nominal GDP despite a massive increase in agentic spending, and large enterprises increasingly see Salesforce as a data pipe for their own custom agents, an ex-growth business that deserves a low multiple. The Informatica acquisition doubles down on that weak model. Salesforce was too cheap at 12x non-GAAP earnings, but near high-teens it is fair, and terminal risks have not abated. … Show more

Salesforce keeps falling despite a $25 billion debt-funded buyback, a sign of how loosely private credit lends. It issued $25 billion of senior notes in March to fund an accelerated buyback at $198.34, yet the stock is near $163 and below its 52-week low, while ServiceNow trades 20% above its own. A Barron's downgrade hinted at what people already knew: Marc Benioff is doing nothing to steer the company through the SaaS sell-off. x.com  x.com 

Salesforce's strong free cash flow and healthy balance sheet support its setup as enterprise AI adoption, Agentforce and AI-driven workflow automation advance. Its earnings gap on four times average volume has been followed by a tightening formation. x.com  x.com 

Salesforce is underweight because it is adding debt for buybacks just as its AI pivot makes growth less certain. It issued $25 billion of senior notes to fund an accelerated buyback, and S&P revised its outlook to negative as leverage nears the 2x downgrade trigger; weak demand forced a 40 basis point concession. Core SaaS growth is slowing to high single digits, and Agentforce plus Data 360, at $2.9 billion ARR, are under 7% of revenue, exposed if AI seat cannibalization outpaces usage credits. … Show more

Salesforce is fully priced, even a little more than worth paying, for roughly 12% annual growth: trailing revenue of $43B is expected to reach $63B by 2030. A lower price would be needed for a long-term position, and it is not a buy-and-forget stock. x.com  x.com 

Salesforce looks compelling as smart money appears to be accumulating it amid AI-disruption fears. Its last three-month candle had the largest dollar volume ever, coming off a sweep of last quarter's lows on record buy volume, suggesting retail is capitulating while institutions buy. CEO Marc Benioff's $50B buyback shows confidence, though the narrative still needs to flip at earnings and a deep market pullback could drag it lower. x.com  x.com  x.com  x.com  x.com  x.com  x.com  x.com  x.com  x.com  … Show more

Salesforce faces real AI threats: more competition, margin headwinds from compute costs and disruption risk for businesses like Tableau and Service Cloud. Agentforce is showing some momentum, and the stock felt oversold earlier, but it is not attractive at current levels. x.com 

Paycom's buyback of 20-25% of its float over the past year makes little sense when ruthless AI implementation is everything and its cost of capital is rising sharply. The stock is down 55% over five years despite strong cash flow, it is not at an entry point, and management has yet to prove itself. x.com  x.com  x.com  x.com 

Salesforce, at the forefront of CRM for decades, is far likelier to build an even better product for the AI era than companies are to build their own CRM, making it the favorite SaaS name. The case examines what it would take for Salesforce to compound about 27% a year over the next five years. x.com  x.com  x.com 

Salesforce's only bull case is valuation and buybacks, and its 20% drop over five years happened for a reason. Even at about 18x earnings, down from 39x two years ago per @qualtrim, a PEG ratio of 2 means it is not cheap by any means. @StockMarketNerd notes the share count fell 15% year over year on accelerated buybacks, alongside a raised organic growth guide. x.com  x.com