Salesforce is underweight because it is adding debt for buybacks just as its AI pivot makes growth less certain. It issued $25 billion of senior notes to fund an accelerated buyback, and S&P revised its outlook to negative as leverage nears the 2x downgrade trigger; weak demand forced a 40 basis point concession. Core SaaS growth is slowing to high single digits, and Agentforce plus Data 360, at $2.9 billion ARR, are under 7% of revenue, exposed if AI seat cannibalization outpaces usage credits. … Show more

Salesforce's debt-funded buyback alongside planned mass layoffs could end in a massive stock collapse. Per Kalshi Finance, it borrowed $25 billion toward a $50 billion buyback while preparing to cut 45,000 jobs, despite record profitability and 11% revenue growth. On the chart, its 200-period moving average looks set to break, following the software sector's trend and 50-period average breaks. x.com 

Salesforce's $25 billion accelerated share repurchase, starting Monday, March 16, and syndicated out over months, should provide at least a short-term floor for the stock. x.com 

Salesforce's $25 billion accelerated buyback leans on debt in a way that risks leveraging its future, as happened at Fiserv. Fiserv cut its share count 21.5% with debt-funded buybacks averaging $167 a share, and now trades under $60 as growth fell. Salesforce can afford this round with $14 billion of free cash flow, but growth is slowing to single digits, AI isn't yet transforming its ecosystem, and its goodwill-heavy book limits deals. The risk is that multiples compress and it doubles down. … Show more

Salesforce faces real AI threats: more competition, margin headwinds from compute costs and disruption risk for businesses like Tableau and Service Cloud. Agentforce is showing some momentum, and the stock felt oversold earlier, but it is not attractive at current levels. x.com 

Salesforce's poor M&A is literally half the reason its multiple stays low. Slack and Informatica are cited as examples, with Braze raised as a question; AI making Tableau obsolete in a few years would be a separate risk, not itself poor M&A. x.com 

Salesforce looks vulnerable long term because users hate it and will happily switch to alternatives, while in the AI era users actually liking a product will be a key moat for SaaS stocks. Adobe showed this when users who hated it switched more easily to Figma. Present-day fundamentals look great across these companies, so the threat is still theoretical. x.com 

ServiceNow's unexpected expense surge makes its rich valuation more vulnerable in a struggling software sector. Revenue rose 21%, but spending drove an EPS miss and one quarter of guided cRPO deceleration; wider market conditions could hurt near term. The 20% selloff looks excessive, and few software companies should benefit as much from AI. Management could deliver over 3-5 years, though the stock is only close to a buy again now; below $100 looks good for the long term. x.com  x.com  x.com  x.com 

Salesforce's strong free cash flow and healthy balance sheet support its setup as enterprise AI adoption, Agentforce and AI-driven workflow automation advance. Its earnings gap on four times average volume has been followed by a tightening formation. x.com  x.com 

ServiceNow's costs are rising far faster than revenue without the RPO acceleration management promised. Q3 revenue rose 21%, while total cost of revenue climbed 56% and net income fell 45%; stock compensation appears to be using about half of free cash flow. The selloff looks deserved, though the shares are now closer to fair value. Sustainable margins and measurable returns remain the test. x.com  x.com  x.com  x.com  x.com  x.com