GregTheAnalyst
Independent Investor, Macro/Micro & Technical Analysis
Salesforce's debt-funded buyback alongside planned mass layoffs could end in a massive stock collapse. Per Kalshi Finance, it borrowed $25 billion toward a $50 billion buyback while preparing to cut 45,000 jobs, despite record profitability and 11% revenue growth. On the chart, its 200-period moving average looks set to break, following the software sector's trend and 50-period average breaks. x.comÂ
Salesforce keeps falling despite a $25 billion debt-funded buyback, a sign of how loosely private credit lends. It issued $25 billion of senior notes in March to fund an accelerated buyback at $198.34, yet the stock is near $163 and below its 52-week low, while ServiceNow trades 20% above its own. A Barron's downgrade hinted at what people already knew: Marc Benioff is doing nothing to steer the company through the SaaS sell-off. x.com x.comÂ
Salesforce is underweight because it is adding debt for buybacks just as its AI pivot makes growth less certain. It issued $25 billion of senior notes to fund an accelerated buyback, and S&P revised its outlook to negative as leverage nears the 2x downgrade trigger; weak demand forced a 40 basis point concession. Core SaaS growth is slowing to high single digits, and Agentforce plus Data 360, at $2.9 billion ARR, are under 7% of revenue, exposed if AI seat cannibalization outpaces usage credits. … Show more
Salesforce's poor M&A is literally half the reason its multiple stays low. Slack and Informatica are cited as examples, with Braze raised as a question; AI making Tableau obsolete in a few years would be a separate risk, not itself poor M&A. x.comÂ
Okta, Salesforce and Atlassian look insanely expensive at nine times forward revenue against roughly 10% year-over-year growth. Many SaaS firms also have high sales and marketing costs. A commenter flags inference spending, which SaaS investors worry could compress margins; if free cash flow, growth, retention or gross margins weaken, their price-to-sales multiples could collapse. x.com x.com x.com x.comÂ
Salesforce faces real AI threats: more competition, margin headwinds from compute costs and disruption risk for businesses like Tableau and Service Cloud. Agentforce is showing some momentum, and the stock felt oversold earlier, but it is not attractive at current levels. x.comÂ
Salesforce's $25 billion accelerated share repurchase, starting Monday, March 16, and syndicated out over months, should provide at least a short-term floor for the stock. x.comÂ
Salesforce has one of the worst price-to-value, usability and ecosystem profiles of any CRM, reason enough alone to short it, judging from years of using it as a core work platform and attending Dreamforce. Its 20% one-day jump is a great day for longtime holders to get out. x.comÂ
Salesforce's $25 billion accelerated buyback leans on debt in a way that risks leveraging its future, as happened at Fiserv. Fiserv cut its share count 21.5% with debt-funded buybacks averaging $167 a share, and now trades under $60 as growth fell. Salesforce can afford this round with $14 billion of free cash flow, but growth is slowing to single digits, AI isn't yet transforming its ecosystem, and its goodwill-heavy book limits deals. The risk is that multiples compress and it doubles down. … Show more
Salesforce's $25 billion accelerated share repurchase, the largest ASR in history and half of its $50 billion buyback program, should have an EPS impact people don't yet understand. Its numbers already made it very attractive, and the initial delivery of about 103M shares shows how bullish Marc Benioff is. x.comÂ
Salesforce is fully priced, even a little more than worth paying, for roughly 12% annual growth: trailing revenue of $43B is expected to reach $63B by 2030. A lower price would be needed for a long-term position, and it is not a buy-and-forget stock. x.com x.comÂ
