Danny Marques
Bitcoin/AI Investor Relations at OG Advisory Group, Research at Finblueprint
Tesla's ability to reuse engineering across cars and robots could expand its opportunity beyond vehicle sales. The Roadster demonstration combines aerospace-derived propulsion with actuators reportedly developed for Optimus; advances in controls, AI and manufacturing could then carry across autonomous transport and physical labor. Commercial significance may emerge in later products rather than from the Roadster itself over the next decade. x.comÂ
Tesla will be one of the largest beneficiaries of the AI infrastructure buildout, and it is still very early. In five years it built one of the most sophisticated real-world AI hardware applications in FSD and robotaxis, gets no market credit yet for Optimus, and is building Terafab, one of the largest AI facilities for chip design, manufacturing, memory and packaging, with memory supply secured from Micron. The stock sits on four-year trendline support near $307, an area to accumulate. x.comÂ
Tesla's engineering culture is still its biggest moat, and the low-volume Roadster could give it a huge marketing halo. The presentation also points to a powerful Tesla-SpaceX connection; robotics, AI and Full Self-Driving could make Tesla's future bigger than most investors realize. The car may arrive in 2028, but the narrative arrived last night. x.com x.comÂ
Tesla's FSD continues to drive sales as its physical AI strategy takes shape. Attach rates top 75% of North American deliveries, active subscriptions have reached 1.74 million, up 67% year on year, and Optimus production has begun. Those developments also dovetail with the strategic fit of a SpaceX merger. x.comÂ
Tesla's Roadster stunt could hurt its credibility with institutional investors because it offers no evidence of a profitable, scalable robotaxi service. The prototype showed neither a flying car nor a car allowed on public streets. Tesla's Q3 automotive margins, operating cash flow and measurable autonomous-driving progress on October 21 will say more about its future than the stunt. x.comÂ
Tesla's Optimus will scale profitably sooner than many realize, because humanoid robots don't need robotaxi's many nines of reliability; in many useful settings, 99% or less will do. Tesla will have 100,000 Optimus robots by end of 2027 or early 2028, at about $3 billion of capex, generating massive training data for its growing Austin compute. Unlike FSD's mostly boring miles, far more Optimus data will be useful for training. Commercial demand should keep them out of homes for a few years. … Show more
Tesla's Robotaxi and Optimus can carry substantial value before major profits because future cash flows, growth and the chance of success matter more than current P/E. In an illustrative model, a one-year delay cuts opportunity value about 11% if payments stay unchanged; faster sustained growth can more than offset it, while reliable deployment can raise the assessed chance of success. These figures are not Tesla forecasts; investment costs and execution risk still matter. x.comÂ
Repeated promises without timely delivery make Tesla and SpaceX unattractive to own. Roadster is years late, Tesla Semi mass production has been repeatedly delayed, Optimus and Cybercab deployment trails promises, and Mars colonization deadlines have slipped. Tesla's auto margins and profits are under pressure. Execution matters more than hype. x.comÂ
Tesla's FSD uptake could add recurring software revenue to its vehicle base, while Robotaxi could earn on each ride. This could be Tesla's most important inflection point, missed amid weak auto profits. North American attach rates rose to 75% from 55% in Q2; subscriptions hit 1.74 million, up 67% year over year, and Cybercab rides began in Austin. Trials may not become lasting paid subscriptions; Robotaxi needs safe operation, steady paying demand and attractive returns at scale. x.comÂ
Per Lars Moravy on Munro Live, Tesla's robotaxi production line can outpace deployments, making its capacity a reason to invest. He says the line does not run every day because deployments have yet to catch up. Per @Tslachan, Turo and Tesla plan to launch verified FSD (Supervised) rentals on October 28, another bullish way for renters to experience FSD. x.com x.comÂ
Tesla's stagnant car business and rising AI and robotics spending are squeezing current earnings before those bets have paid off. Q3 revenue was flat as auto sales slipped and regulatory credits collapsed; operating expenses rose 39%, operating income fell 56%, and EPS dropped from $0.43 to $0.24. The spend-now, profit-later strategy is testing investors' patience. x.comÂ
Tesla's Cybercab network could eventually become largely self-running because Optimus may build and service cars while the cars drive and charge themselves. Texas registrations now show 544 Cybercabs versus 507 Model Ys; Tesla added 737 robotaxis since September 1 versus Waymo's 471. Cybercab is designed for wireless charging, though people still clean the cars. Musk says Optimus and Cybercab will account for most of Tesla's value. x.com x.comÂ
