Kyle Reidhead
CEO & Analyst of Milk Road/Milk Road AI
Uber should benefit as autonomous vehicles make rides and delivery much cheaper and expand the market. AVs replace drivers, who were never Uber employees, and its business is growing. Tesla will take some of Uber's share, but the pie should grow significantly, potentially 10x and then 100x in rides via AVs and drones, so Uber would hire more over time, not fewer. Tesla is bullish too. x.com x.comÂ
Tesla's low-cost, high-margin Cybercabs make its Robotaxi opportunity bigger than investors appreciate. ARK estimates each costs about $30K to make and generates $93K a year at roughly 68% gross margin; Tesla is not bullish enough in investors' eyes. Texas registrations show 1,080 Teslas, including 573 Cybercabs, versus 1,207 Waymos; these are registrations, not active rides. Cybercabs already outnumber Model Ys less than two months after launch. x.com x.com x.comÂ
Scaling Tesla's robotaxi fleet to 5,000 could yield a $584 million annual revenue run rate by year-end. The model assumes 24/7 operation, 40 daily rides per vehicle averaging five miles, 70% utilization, and current fares of $3 plus $1 per mile. A 5,000-vehicle fleet by year-end is now the expectation; introducing Cybercabs in other states could keep growth going at its current pace. x.com x.com x.comÂ
Uber will not exist in a decade, and likely sooner, because it cannot compete with Tesla's Cybercab, a product that is half the price, safer, and will only get cheaper and safer. Riding alone in a personal Cybercab that doubles as an entertainment space beats getting into a car with a stranger. Tesla is beginning to mass-produce a vehicle with no steering wheel or pedals; now it is just a matter of scaling, which takes time. x.com x.comÂ
Tesla's robotaxi fleet should grow exponentially soon because the first 1,000 vehicles were the hardest and slowest to add. Texas DMV now shows 1,051 registered Tesla robotaxis: 544 Cybercabs, up from 463 on October 25, and 507 Model Ys. Cybercabs outnumber Model Ys for the first time; autonomous miles have surpassed Waymo's in Austin. The next fleet doublings to 2,000, 4,000 and beyond should each take less time. The 690-Cybercab Thanksgiving line is a target, not a forecast. x.com x.com x.comÂ
Tesla's Cybercab may command a premium because it offers a much better ride. It seems to earn over $3 per mile, making Tesla a cash generator for now, though that pricing may not last. Q4 robotaxi miles already appear above Q3 with less than a third of the quarter elapsed; paid miles are tracking for over 3x quarterly growth. Grok roughly estimates Tesla's robotaxi annual revenue run rate at $100-150M versus Waymo's $390-500M; Tesla is on pace to overtake Waymo within months. x.com x.com x.com … Show more
Uber looks rather negative because driver reclassification, consumer cutbacks and easy switching threaten its business. Making drivers employees could raise costs and push ride prices up around 40%. Food delivery and comfort rides are cut when budgets tighten; riders switch to Lyft or Bolt for a few euros. Tesla or Waymo could bypass Uber with their own apps, and Google can scale quickly. Despite being a great company, Uber has too many unknowns; it is preferable to stay on the sidelines. x.comÂ
Tesla's Cybercab network could eventually become largely self-running because Optimus may build and service cars while the cars drive and charge themselves. Texas registrations now show 544 Cybercabs versus 507 Model Ys; Tesla added 737 robotaxis since September 1 versus Waymo's 471. Cybercab is designed for wireless charging, though people still clean the cars. Musk says Optimus and Cybercab will account for most of Tesla's value. x.com x.comÂ
Tesla's Cybercab ramp is gaining ground against Waymo in Austin. Robotaxi Tracker puts Tesla at 438,000 robotaxi miles in the week to October 18, versus Waymo's 406,000 weekly average in Q2 2026; Waymo's data lag means this is not a same-week comparison. x.comÂ
Uber's alleged fight against robotaxis in Washington, D.C., favors Tesla over Uber. @wholemars says Uber is trying to keep them out of the city and that riding in one builds public support. Sell Uber, buy Tesla. x.comÂ
Tesla's accelerating Cybercab registrations make a commercially significant fleet more plausible, which the market is starting to notice. The tracker shows 544 registered in Texas and 229 spotted on roads; an earlier snapshot counted 114 new registrations in a week and the first Dallas sighting. At that earlier pace, registrations could exceed 1,500 by year-end, or reach 2,000 if growth steepens; at 2,000, the model points toward robotaxi roughly doubling Tesla's earnings. x.com x.comÂ