Deep Inference
Partner at Aion Analytics, Quantitative Markets Research
Space stocks look extremely oversold against a strengthening policy narrative, leaving the rubber band very stretched. The median space stock is 52.5% below its all-time high and 51.5% below its 52-week high. Meanwhile, the White House spent the weekend promoting the Space Force and set a policy target of 1,000 launches a year by 2030. The gap between narrative and price has rarely been this wide. x.comÂ
Space stocks, from SpaceX and Rocket Lab to AST SpaceMobile, Intuitive Machines and Planet Labs, are turning up from contrarian territory as SpaceX beat in its first report and sellers stop pressing. Short-term breadth has snapped back, and nothing in the group is making new lows on any timeframe. Rocket Lab and AST SpaceMobile sit in positive gamma, so dealers should absorb volatility into the unlock supply event, supporting a drift higher. Space is climbing the accelerating-sector rankings. x.com x.com x.com x.com x.comÂ
Space stocks could regain high-beta flows as SpaceX lockups end and a probable late-November Anthropic IPO threatens AI stocks, much as SpaceX's IPO hurt space names. Hedge funds are overexposed to the Magnificent Seven and underexposed or max short low-quality high beta; falling rates and toppy oil could make the rotation painful for them through 2027. AST SpaceMobile could benefit as intermittent service triggers agreements and Blue Origin possibly returns to the pad in six weeks. x.com x.comÂ
A stronger SpaceX could lift the wider space-stock basket, including AST SpaceMobile, Rocket Lab, Redwire, Planet Labs, Intuitive Machines, Firefly Aerospace and Voyager Technologies. Per DeItaone, JPMorgan raised its SpaceX price target from $240 to $500 while maintaining Overweight. The seven space stocks rose alongside SpaceX after hours. Their initial post-IPO selloff was followed by macro-driven weakness, not further weakness caused by SpaceX. x.com x.com x.comÂ
SpaceX faces near-term selling risk from an insider-share unlock despite a remarkably strong quarter. Tomorrow, 28% of its insider lockup pool, nearly 10% of all shares, becomes eligible for sale. Revenue reached $14.6 billion, up 161%, with $4.4 billion in net profit; $7.6 billion in AI revenue now exceeds Starlink and other connectivity revenue combined. x.comÂ
The orbital economy is far too large for only SpaceX to win, making space stocks the easiest 100x opportunity yet. By 2050-2070, every business on Earth could have a counterpart in space; some public companies may fail, but the few winners could create enormous wealth. The easy money is over, so AST SpaceMobile, Firefly Aerospace, Rocket Lab, Planet Labs, Intuitive Machines, MDA Space and SpaceX belong in a separate retirement account that is never traded, not a price-action trade. x.comÂ
SpaceX's confidential filing for the largest IPO in history should force fund managers who ignored space to buy in, making this exactly the wrong time to short the sector. SpaceX is seeking a $75 billion raise at a $1.75 trillion valuation, with Polymarket putting a June listing at 60%. Yet AST SpaceMobile and Rocket Lab sit 30% below their highs, Redwire 35% and Planet Labs 15%. That fund flow has to go somewhere. x.comÂ
SpaceX's expansion could dilute shareholders and flood the spot market with compute capacity, making 2027 a potential disaster despite this quarter's results. A large share of its proposed capacity would go to the spot market, unlike Meta's internally used capacity; valuing it as if peak spot prices last forever ignores that risk. SpaceX should be down, not up, on that outlook. x.com x.com x.com x.comÂ
Space stocks are turning bullish as oversold names that never stopped executing regain momentum, led by AST SpaceMobile, Rocket Lab and flyExclusive. AST launched BlueBird and began direct-to-cell service in Japan, and Rocket Lab landed a roughly $400M award. AmpliTech's multi-sector exposure is overlooked, and CPS Technologies is a bottleneck play for 2027; Satellogic, Velo3D and Voyager also fit. The SpaceX unlock overhang is only partly gone, so re-entry should wait. x.comÂ
The space economy's true addressable market cannot even be estimated and is most likely larger than anyone can comprehend, which underpins the bullish case for Rocket Lab, AST SpaceMobile, Redwire, Planet Labs and Voyager. Elon Musk, in the post the author quotes, says it will be much bigger. x.comÂ
Space and defense stocks such as Rocket Lab, Kratos and AeroVironment warrant skepticism after a big run because the sector doesn't generate profits the way other sectors do. Many of the announced deals are burdens that take a long time to execute. Excitement around Rocket Lab could return before or after its Neutron launch. x.com x.com x.comÂ
Good SpaceX earnings could help Rocket Lab lead the new-space sector higher with a rally as violent as its capitulation. Rocket Lab is the sector leader outside SpaceX; its RSI is extremely oversold, the lower Bollinger band is overstretched and MACD's negative divergence is subsiding. Three upside gaps lie at $55.25-59.18, $64.22-65.71 and $73.11-74.76. The highest should fill before year-end, though the exact date is hard to predict. x.com x.comÂ
