Brett Krieger
Retail Investor, Space, AI & Emerging Technology
The space economy's true addressable market cannot even be estimated and is most likely larger than anyone can comprehend, which underpins the bullish case for Rocket Lab, AST SpaceMobile, Redwire, Planet Labs and Voyager. Elon Musk, in the post the author quotes, says it will be much bigger. x.comÂ
SpaceX targeting a valuation above $2 trillion in its IPO, as reported by @DeItaone, validates that the space economy is large and accelerating fast. That is bullish for Rocket Lab, AST SpaceMobile, Redwire, Planet Labs and Voyager, which trade at fractions of SpaceX's market cap and valuation. Expect the space sector to outperform through the end of this decade. x.comÂ
The orbital economy is far too large for only SpaceX to win, making space stocks the easiest 100x opportunity yet. By 2050-2070, every business on Earth could have a counterpart in space; some public companies may fail, but the few winners could create enormous wealth. The easy money is over, so AST SpaceMobile, Firefly Aerospace, Rocket Lab, Planet Labs, Intuitive Machines, MDA Space and SpaceX belong in a separate retirement account that is never traded, not a price-action trade. x.comÂ
Space stocks could regain high-beta flows as SpaceX lockups end and a probable late-November Anthropic IPO threatens AI stocks, much as SpaceX's IPO hurt space names. Hedge funds are overexposed to the Magnificent Seven and underexposed or max short low-quality high beta; falling rates and toppy oil could make the rotation painful for them through 2027. AST SpaceMobile could benefit as intermittent service triggers agreements and Blue Origin possibly returns to the pad in six weeks. x.com x.comÂ
AST SpaceMobile's economics remain unproven while its finances are strained by heavy capex, negative operating cash flow, rising debt and frequent stock issuance. The forecast opportunity is the only positive; Piper Sandler's cut to its target to $54 from $98 is significant. x.comÂ
The space trade is where AI was in 2022: a $613 billion economy in 2024 with a multiyear tailwind that most retail investors do not own. Rocket Lab is the only public US rocket company at scale; Iridium offers pole-to-pole satellite coverage and real cash flow; Karman supplies parts to every rocket launched; Planet Labs provides daily satellite imagery and just had its first profitable year; and AST SpaceMobile delivers direct satellite-to-smartphone broadband. x.comÂ
Space stocks look extremely oversold against a strengthening policy narrative, leaving the rubber band very stretched. The median space stock is 52.5% below its all-time high and 51.5% below its 52-week high. Meanwhile, the White House spent the weekend promoting the Space Force and set a policy target of 1,000 launches a year by 2030. The gap between narrative and price has rarely been this wide. x.comÂ
Rocket Lab, AST SpaceMobile and Intuitive Machines are priced as if they had already colonized the solar system, so they look headed one way once the hype rally ends. Together they carry an $82 billion market cap on $883 million of revenue and no profits, while burning cash heavily. Reusable rockets are a cost-reduction story rather than a giant leap. Their long-term potential may be real, but that future is 20-30 years out and does not justify today's valuations. x.com x.com x.com x.com x.com … Show more
The space trade is not over for Rocket Lab, AST SpaceMobile and Planet Labs. The space economy is already about $630B and on a path to $1.8T by 2035, defense is writing real checks with hundreds of millions in Space Force awards, direct-to-phone service covers 3B potential users with partners signed, and launch costs keep falling. x.comÂ
AST SpaceMobile's direct-to-phone satellite network makes it an extremely bullish long-term space-economy bet. Partnerships with more than 60 mobile operators representing over 3 billion potential subscribers and about $1.3 billion in contracted revenue backlog support the case. It targets initial, intermittent broadband coverage in five countries before end-2026; its market cap is roughly half Rocket Lab's, though both face significant execution risks. x.comÂ
Other space stocks look less attractive as liquidity concentrates in SpaceX. StonkChris expects most to face a tougher long-term outlook, though some may still win; the visible flow of liquidity into one name supports that concern. x.comÂ
Space stocks could soar as Goldman Sachs sees the space economy reaching $1.8 trillion by 2035. Rocket Lab, with 70+ launches and new Space Force and NASA contracts, is quietly becoming the second rocket company after SpaceX. AST SpaceMobile's satellites connect directly to phones, with AT&T, Verizon and Vodafone as partners. Voyager is building NASA-backed Starlab to replace the ISS. BlackSky sells real-time imagery under long-term US government deals. SpaceX adds Starlink, Starship and xAI. … Show more
