Burak Finance
Head of Analytics, Growth Investor, PLTR/NBIS/RKLB
The space trade is not over for Rocket Lab, AST SpaceMobile and Planet Labs. The space economy is already about $630B and on a path to $1.8T by 2035, defense is writing real checks with hundreds of millions in Space Force awards, direct-to-phone service covers 3B potential users with partners signed, and launch costs keep falling. x.comÂ
AST SpaceMobile's direct-to-phone satellite network makes it an extremely bullish long-term space-economy bet. Partnerships with more than 60 mobile operators representing over 3 billion potential subscribers and about $1.3 billion in contracted revenue backlog support the case. It targets initial, intermittent broadband coverage in five countries before end-2026; its market cap is roughly half Rocket Lab's, though both face significant execution risks. x.comÂ
The space trade is where AI was in 2022: a $613 billion economy in 2024 with a multiyear tailwind that most retail investors do not own. Rocket Lab is the only public US rocket company at scale; Iridium offers pole-to-pole satellite coverage and real cash flow; Karman supplies parts to every rocket launched; Planet Labs provides daily satellite imagery and just had its first profitable year; and AST SpaceMobile delivers direct satellite-to-smartphone broadband. x.comÂ
No rocket or space company anywhere makes money, making the 'space is the future' investment pitch a bad bet. SpaceX is shown at -$4.9B; Rocket Lab, AST SpaceMobile, Intuitive Machines, Firefly Aerospace and Planet Labs also have negative figures, ranging from -$131.20M to -$618.76M. x.comÂ
The orbital economy is far too large for only SpaceX to win, making space stocks the easiest 100x opportunity yet. By 2050-2070, every business on Earth could have a counterpart in space; some public companies may fail, but the few winners could create enormous wealth. The easy money is over, so AST SpaceMobile, Firefly Aerospace, Rocket Lab, Planet Labs, Intuitive Machines, MDA Space and SpaceX belong in a separate retirement account that is never traded, not a price-action trade. x.comÂ
Space stocks could soar as Goldman Sachs sees the space economy reaching $1.8 trillion by 2035. Rocket Lab, with 70+ launches and new Space Force and NASA contracts, is quietly becoming the second rocket company after SpaceX. AST SpaceMobile's satellites connect directly to phones, with AT&T, Verizon and Vodafone as partners. Voyager is building NASA-backed Starlab to replace the ISS. BlackSky sells real-time imagery under long-term US government deals. SpaceX adds Starlink, Starship and xAI. … Show more
AST SpaceMobile's economics remain unproven while its finances are strained by heavy capex, negative operating cash flow, rising debt and frequent stock issuance. The forecast opportunity is the only positive; Piper Sandler's cut to its target to $54 from $98 is significant. x.comÂ
Rocket Lab remains a long-term bet on the strength of the space sector and growing demand for launch platforms, even though it is expected to stay GAAP-unprofitable until around 2028. Goldman Sachs estimates SpaceX could reach $474 billion of revenue by 2030, including $322 billion from AI, showing how large the commercial space opportunity could become. Rocket Lab's largest commercial Electron contract, 20 Synspective launches for 2028-2031, lifted its backlog above 100 missions. x.comÂ
The space economy should nearly triple from $630B to $1.8T by 2035, per McKinsey, because launch costs have fallen 95%+ since the Shuttle era, from $54,000/kg to $2,700/kg on Falcon 9, enabling once-impossible business models. Rocket Lab is the strongest launcher outside SpaceX, though its ~$80B value prices in Neutron. Planet Labs is a data utility, Intuitive Machines has near-unique lunar capability, BlackSky serves defense, and Firefly, AST SpaceMobile and CPS Technologies round it out. x.comÂ
Rocket Lab, AST SpaceMobile and Intuitive Machines are priced as if they had already colonized the solar system, so they look headed one way once the hype rally ends. Together they carry an $82 billion market cap on $883 million of revenue and no profits, while burning cash heavily. Reusable rockets are a cost-reduction story rather than a giant leap. Their long-term potential may be real, but that future is 20-30 years out and does not justify today's valuations. x.com x.com x.com x.com x.com … Show more
Rocket Lab's growing Space Systems business positions it to provide more than launches for the space economy. It generated $189.5M in Q2, 81% of revenue; if its pending Iridium acquisition closes, it would gain a global satellite communications network. At about $51, this is one of the most compelling long-term opportunities in the space sector over 3-5 years, provided it keeps executing. Neutron's launch has slipped to 2027, and execution risks remain. x.com x.com x.comÂ
