Deep Inference
Partner at Aion Analytics, Quantitative Markets Research
Velo3D still looks like a good idea, and its move may be starting. A post the author replies to notes the stock fell after every recent positive catalyst, including a US Army partnership, a full-rate production contract from a defense prime, raised guidance with a nearly doubled backlog, and a multi-year defense logistics contract. Reported short interest dropping from 100% to 50% of float is puzzling given the price action. x.comÂ
Velo3D is a sub-$1 billion critical parts maker for SpaceX and Anduril, with a near-100% short float betting against its turnaround. Five Raptor engine parts are qualified exclusively on its platform, SpaceX runs 25 of its machines with expansion talks underway, and it is embedded in multiple Anduril programs. A shift to a 60%-margin production model, a $32.6 million Department of War contract, insiders cutting debt 60% via conversion and guidance for positive H1 2026 EBITDA support it. x.com x.com x.com x.comÂ
Velo3D should eventually play a big role in physical AI, giving it applications broader than space. Its volume has collapsed as it consolidates, the sub-$10 area has been well defended all year, and a break of the latest downtrend should spark a move, a setup similar to AST SpaceMobile and other high-beta stocks. x.comÂ
Velo3D set up a new $100 million at-the-market program to sell stock, which the market seems to like, though announcing it after 4 PM on a Friday is a habit of sketchy companies. Signed May 15, 2026 with Needham, Cantor Fitzgerald and Craig-Hallum at a 3% commission, it replaces the 2023 Needham-only program and funds working capital and general corporate purposes. It is the second important release put out late on a Friday in about a month. x.comÂ
Velo3D's $500M shelf for ATM and warrant dilution is predatory relative to its $311M market cap, creating a material overhang for the stock. The company says the money will fund scaling 400 production systems over the next decade plus M&A, and its recent contracts, $32.6M from the Department of War, $11.5M from defense primes and $9.8M from the DLA, are largely positive. Velo3D can be strategically sound but financially much less so. x.comÂ
Velo3D carries high short-squeeze risk after a strong first quarter. It beat Q1 with 48% revenue growth and jumped 23% pre-market, while short interest is 29.3% of a 13.76M-share float. High short interest plus strong earnings is squeeze fuel, with squeeze risk put at 75%. x.comÂ
Velo3D is not a company with a good future but one that goes big if the future plays out. Per @byRudim, its year-end 2025 backlog was $31 million, up 94%, and its Intelligent Fusion metal printing opens parts that could not be made before. With a market cap of about $200 million and unproven management, it will likely need substantial capital, so expect dilutive raises along the way and invest slowly. x.com x.comÂ
Velo3D is the SpaceX-ecosystem supplier worth owning, since SpaceX uses multiple Velo3D Sapphire machines in-house for metal additive manufacturing of engine and rocket components. On the chart, the stock held support, forming a tweezer bottom off $16, and has moved more than 30% since. x.com x.comÂ
Velo3D is tripling its metal-printing production capacity to meet strong aerospace and defense demand, yet the stock is still 55% below its June highs, making it worth a starter position. An analyst's surveys show strong demand for metal printing in those sectors, and nLight's management confirmed it on its Q2 call. x.comÂ
Velo3D is one of the best ways to invest in SpaceX's production ramp, since spending from SpaceX's IPO capital will flow down to whoever prints its engines. Its Sapphire printers make complex propulsion parts without support structures, and it is qualified on five current Raptor parts and the next-generation Raptor 4. Customers also include Anduril, Lockheed Martin, General Dynamics, Aerojet Rocketdyne and the US Navy, Army and Air Force. x.com x.comÂ
Veea is another short-squeeze opportunity, ranking first on the Short Squeeze Tracker with a borrow rate of about 780%. Stocks down 98% make good short squeezes, and recent news seems to be driving this tiny company's shares. x.com x.com x.comÂ
