Mitchell Martan
Investment Researcher for The Long Investor, Economics/Finance Background
Strategy offers good asymmetry, since it would probably outperform drastically if bitcoin has finally bottomed and moves significantly higher. The stock refuses to go lower despite bearish headlines and a complete lack of faith in management, even though its corporate structure is not the best. x.com
Bitcoin and Strategy offer an unparalleled and underappreciated setup now that the issue around Strategy's STRC preferred is largely resolved. x.com
Strategy is attracting some of the world's largest fund managers because they want Bitcoin exposure. Their buying supports the bullish case for MSTR as a listed vehicle for institutional Bitcoin demand. x.com
Strategy needs a solid bid to preserve the premium that funds its bitcoin purchases. MSCI's new rules could eject it from global indexes and force passive selling; JPMorgan estimates $2.8 billion in Strategy share sales if that happens, or up to $8.8 billion if others follow. Without the premium, it cannot raise funds to buy bitcoin. Watch whether the rules bite on November 30. x.com
Strategy offers more upside than bitcoin because it is levered through fixed-dollar convertible debt and preferred equity: if bitcoin reaches $220,000 in 2028-29, it could deliver a much higher percentage return. It should benefit whenever bitcoin flips above $100,000 in the next few years. It can also fall twice as much as bitcoin, so holders must avoid getting stopped out. x.com x.com
Strategy's accretive Bitcoin accumulation has raised net backing per share, lowering the premium needed to revisit its $543 intraday high. At $98,000 Bitcoin, backing rose from $127 to $160 since November 2024, cutting the required net mNAV from 4.3x to 3.4x. A 2.5x premium at $200,000-$250,000 Bitcoin would imply roughly $896-$1,131; 2.5x is plausible at peak euphoria, not expected at $126,000. Premiums depend on Bitcoin momentum and sentiment, which Strategy cannot control. x.com x.com
Strategy isn't a buy even at about 0.8x the value of its bitcoin holdings. The discount reflects market skepticism about management, liquidity and governance, as investors price in execution risk and potential structural issues beyond the BTC exposure. x.com x.com
Strategy might be undervalued because it holds far more Bitcoin than the first time its stock traded at the same price. At $140.51 today, it holds 848,517 BTC, versus 193,000 BTC the first time shares reached $140.51. x.com x.com
Strategy is a buy because bitcoin will rally, with $80K set to crack soon. Strategy now owns more bitcoin than it did in May. x.com
The loss of forced ETF buying increases the likelihood Strategy will trade at a discount to the value of its bitcoin holdings. WatcherGuru reports MSCI plans to remove Strategy from its indexes. x.com x.com
Heavy inflows could lift Strive's mNAV above Strategy's for periods because they have more impact on the smaller company. Strive could do even better than 6x versus Strategy's 4x, as investors seek the faster Bitcoin treasury stock. x.com x.com x.com
