Arrakis Global
Global Thematic Fund Manager
Gold and other hard assets such as platinum, silver and copper are worth owning because the end game very likely sends the dollar, pound and euro much lower. Structural flows, fiscal pressure and an inflationary impulse are all working against Treasury Secretary Bessent, and markets may force him to act; he has the ammunition to blunt-force his preferred outcome but has made that much harder. x.comÂ
Gold is set to take off as energy-driven stagflation traps the Fed and negative real rates favor it. Today's dovish hold was likely its last chance to hike: once the AI bubble bursts, the Fed loses that option, while current debt-to-GDP rules out Volcker-style hikes without fiscal insolvency. Per Macrotrends' chart, gold rose eightfold from its 1976 low to its 1980 high, equivalent to $32,000 gold over five years in today's terms. x.com x.com x.comÂ
Gold is extremely attractive now because rising market fear could make it a great hedge. It has fallen nearly 30% from its January all-time high and returned to the accumulation zone. If this level holds, expect a bounce soon. x.comÂ
Rising Treasury yields make non-yielding gold less attractive, setting up one major selloff before the next big rally. Oil above $100 adds inflation and rate pressure; higher yields could lift the dollar, while gold ETF outflows and forced selling in a liquidity crisis add risk. The Benner Cycle flags 2026 as a potential selling period. The long-term bull market is not necessarily over: central banks are still buying and long-term demand remains strong. Gold is not worth chasing at these levels. … Show more
Gold is worth owning because of unstable, inconsistent central bank policy, currency depreciation and a lack of fiscal discipline from both parties in Washington. The predictable pressure on precious metals from higher rates and fears of a Fed hike tomorrow is likely discounted or close to it, so the risk/reward is attractive despite a technical breakdown evident for weeks. Like any commodity whose intrinsic value is hard to calculate, gold will stay volatile on both the downside and upside. … Show more
Gold and silver may benefit if yields ease a little further from their local high for a while longer. The FOMC meeting and minutes could be good for both. x.comÂ
Gold now points toward a downside target, following the late-August exit signal laid out in the August 30 edition of Turning Points. x.comÂ
Gold's dip on rate-driven opportunity costs is a buying opportunity, because higher rates force faster money-supply growth. The system is designed that way, since letting defaults ripple through it is politically unfeasible, and that pressure will intensify until the great monetary reset. x.comÂ
Gold, along with long rates, is a premier trade because this moment closely rhymes with 2008. Then, after an ugly January, a 75bp Fed cut and Bear Stearns' collapse in March, stocks got within 10% of their high, oil hit a record, rate expectations rose, and the Fed weighed hiking in August while the ECB under Trichet actually raised rates. The Fed is again contemplating a hike, and that analog points to bonds and gold. x.comÂ
Gold is not immune to the liquidity drain hitting markets, and it is breaking below its 200-day moving average for the first time since 2023. Other commodities are not looking hot either. Fiat currencies eventually end up in the toilet and commodities scream higher, but the path there can be bumpy. x.comÂ
Gold remains bullish because its correction and investor washout fit the expected cycle reset before the next major move. After two strong years, the projected cycle low is approaching, making the shakeout a setup within gold's multi-year cycle rather than a break in the long-term trend. x.com x.comÂ
