SpaceX's cheap capital and hardware execution give its compute buildout an edge over neoclouds and megacaps. It is quickly becoming the world's largest compute supplier: its 2033 bonds pay 5.65% versus 9.625% on CoreWeave's 2032 notes, and it deployed 110,000 GB300s at Colossus II in 64 days. It targets 10GW to "maybe" 20GW in 2027. One of Anthropic's biggest compute suppliers, SpaceX has up to $120.5B in estimated commitments through 2029, cancellable on 90 days' notice after early 2027. x.com 

SpaceX's AI compute buildout has more evidence of demand from big customers. Per Sawyer Merritt, Anthropic's IPO filing says it agreed to spend up to $120.5 billion on SpaceXAI compute through 2029, with payments of about $3.1 billion a month once all capacity is delivered, expected in December 2026. Either side may cancel on 90 days' notice after initial terms end in January and March 2027. x.com  x.com 

SpaceX can capture more upside from AI compute scarcity by selling capacity near spot prices instead of locking in today's rates. Potential Anthropic and Google commitments total about $151B, with 90-day termination rights, while bare-metal pricing has risen from $10-15M to nearly $50M in annual revenue per MW. Elon Musk says contract payback could be as short as six months in 2027. x.com  x.com 

Solaris Energy Infrastructure is a very cheap way to play the US power build-out, now expanding to 3.1GW on booming demand from customers like xAI. Two deals add 900 MW of turbines: 400 MW via the Genco Power acquisition and about 500 MW of turbine delivery slots. The $1.55B cost, about $1.73M per MW, is well above prior purchases, but the company sees clear line of sight to deploy. Stifel estimates the added 900 MW could lift 2028 EBITDA about $300M above the $760M expected, about $15 a share. … Show more

Solaris Energy Infrastructure trades at only about 8x EBITDA while EBITDA grows roughly 100%. It pre-announced revised adjusted EBITDA guidance that puts Q1 2027 at $200M-$240M versus $137M consensus. That points to about $800M of FY27 EBITDA at the low end, against a current enterprise value of $6.4B. x.com 

SpaceX's Anthropic compute capacity can be redirected if either party ends the agreement after the initial lockout periods, improving flexibility if plans change. The parties may cancel on 90 days' notice after periods ending in January or March 2027, depending on the agreement. Anthropic's S-1 describes up to $120.5B of spending with SpaceX through 2029; a switch to Grok if it catches Claude remains an inference, not a commitment. x.com 

SpaceX's compute outlook improves as Anthropic commits more spending and institutions fund its GPU expansion. Anthropic's S-1 lists up to $120.5B in SpaceXAI compute purchases through 2029; Pimco bought $4B of the roughly $40B Apollo-led GPU debt package. The GPU lease is expected to close before year-end and entails about $40B in principal payments, not new shares. Elon Musk says Starlink Mobile will take 2-3 years to build out, versus the 4-6 years estimated by Verizon's CEO. x.com  x.com  x.com  … Show more

SpaceX's near-monopoly in global satellite internet, built on reusable rockets, should generate enormous cash flow to partly fund its AI compute buildout. Those cash flows should strengthen its credit profile and let it finance the rest more cheaply than pure-play neoclouds CoreWeave, Nebius and IREN, which SpaceX makes obsolete. Grok ensures deployed compute earns revenue if customers back out. There is no reason to own a pure-play neocloud when SpaceX is available. x.com  x.com 

SpaceX's exclusive use of Nvidia GPUs and other supply constraints make Musk's 13-20 GW operational compute forecast for end-2027 too high. A substantial buildout is still incredibly enticing, but reaching that scale likely requires cheap capacity from struggling neoclouds, mostly through capacity deals and some acquisitions. Its attractive $40B off-balance-sheet GPU lease deal is only a drop in the bucket of the debt needed. Capacity can still grow quickly over time. x.com  x.com  x.com  x.com  … Show more

SpaceX's compute buildout looks undercounted because Deutsche Bank models signed IT-load leases, excluding Grok's internal use and facility overhead. DB's 4.5GW upside case is about 6.5GW on Musk's nameplate basis, versus his 13GW end-2027 guidance; SpaceX could reach close to 6GW by end-Q1. DB's $216B 2027 compute exit ARR upside is below the $238B bear case, with near $500B expected, perhaps more. Per DB, vertical integration puts build cost near $35-36B/GW versus about $50B for peers. x.com  … Show more