Fund.TBD
Swing Trader, Technical/Fundamental Analysis
POET has become a battleground stock, and its latest $50M customer deal looks like circular financing dressed up as an AI partnership. A quoted post from someone who sent a person to POET's Singapore office says the company is real, so the concern is financial engineering rather than a fake company; Grok also says the circular-financing claim is true. x.comÂ
POET Technologies is a falling knife after Marvell cancelled all its orders for Celestial AI. Per @Kaizen_Investor, the stock fell almost 50% because POET breached its NDA by confirming the Marvell purchase order to appease investors after a short report. The company already had a sordid history, and Marvell pivoting so easily shows POET offers nothing critical it cannot do without. x.com x.comÂ
POET Technologies carries too much uncertainty after issuing a $400M direct offering right at its all-time high, on top of extreme volatility and continued dilution; it is not one to touch in the near future. That is despite NMR's short report being misleading: per @Scrollingaat, the abandoned office NMR photographed as POET's headquarters belongs to Puzzle Cats, a gaming company on the same floor, while POET's filed address is Suite 1107, 120 Eglinton Ave East, Toronto. x.com x.comÂ
It is time to fully let go of POET after news of a new equity raise. @ganziboy11, reporting the raise, notes that POET's technology may be good but the company's approach looks odd. x.comÂ
POET Technologies' setup remains intact despite a 9% weekly drop on good news, and Jim Cramer's call four months ago that it was losing too much money has proven wrong. Since then it raised $150 million, won a Lightwave Innovation Award, partnered with LITEON and signed a 1.6T AI transceiver deal with Lessengers. x.comÂ
POET Technologies' management has proven its incompetence, which matters because a rotten foundation in leadership keeps a business from flourishing. Per @ren_stocks, the CFO broke an NDA by naming a customer, leading Marvell to cancel its deals just as the stock ran from $5 to $16. On a leadership scoring framework, POET rates poorly: a technically credentialed team with a decade-long pattern of overpromising, chasing hot themes, dilution and now a governance failure. x.com x.comÂ
POET Technologies is uninvestable because its management lacks basic judgment, which outweighs having the perfect product at the perfect time. Its CFO breached an NDA by disclosing the Marvell deal himself, and the stock fell nearly 50%, per @StockSavvyShay. There were red flags with this management group even before. Ondas's CEO shows the focus, consistency and trustworthiness investors should look for instead. x.comÂ
POET is derisked by confirmation that its customer Lumilens is a large, well-funded hyperscaler supplier. Lumilens emerged from stealth at a $5.5B valuation after raising $700M, with a multi-billion-dollar customer agreement, confirming earlier mapping that it supplies a top-three hyperscaler. POET has a $50M Lumilens purchase order, scalable to $500M, plus contracts with Sivers, on top of its large balance sheet. Lumilens's rise is also great for optical valuations generally. x.comÂ
POET Technologies looks like a short on a pattern of partnerships that counterparties deny. @NMRtweet is short after Marvell, which acquired Celestial AI, cancelled POET's product orders, arguing POET isn't transparent and this isn't the only dead partnership. @kovainvest's timeline lists POET press releases each denied by the counterparty, including Lightwave execs who said they had never heard of POET, and Marvell's cancellation citing a POET NDA breach, which sent shares down 47% in a day. … Show more
POET Technologies is no investment just because it hasn't run yet in a hot photonics category. It is pre-revenue, has relied on paid stock promotion, and has now been wrecked after its hype efforts angered Marvell. Serious photonics traders never thought anything of it. x.comÂ
POET Technologies is the upstream pick-and-shovel for Celestial AI's Photonic Fabric, which Marvell just acquired for about $5B. POET supplies the light source that powers it, and Marvell has the hyperscaler relationships with AWS, Google and Meta to deploy it at scale. Revenue is still early, but once Marvell integrates Celestial and ramps production orders, the market should recognize POET's value; Q3 or Q4 2026 could be the inflection, and patience is required. x.comÂ
POET looks headed toward zero after Marvell cancelled its Celestial AI orders over a confidentiality breach, costing POET basically its only big customer. With only three or four major end customers, who could use COUPE instead, no revenue and ongoing cash burn, its reputation may never recover. The Marvell contract likely helped its $300M-plus raise, so investors may sue for their money back, and the stock could easily fall below $5. x.com x.com x.com x.com x.com x.com x.com x.com x.com x.com … Show more
