Deep Sail Capital
Founder & CIO of Deep Sail Capital, Long/Short GARP, Quality/Growth/Micro-Caps
Turning Point Brands carries too much approval risk to warrant investment, even though the story makes sense. Management sees regulatory enforcement as a net positive that raises a hurdle smaller players can't clear, calls its ALP joint venture highly valuable though the plan is vague, and expects heavy promotion from big rivals to fade, leaving a more stable, higher-margin industry in three years. What it will do with a recent capital raise is undisclosed. x.com x.com
Turning Point Brands looks extremely interesting after falling about 60% from its highs, as it has become almost a pure play on nicotine pouches over the past two years. The new CEO may kitchen-sink results and the chart is unattractive, but betting on a materially lower price before upcoming catalysts play out looks increasingly poor. x.com
Turning Point Brands is one of the best setups as its expansion comes faster than expected. Line of sight to $2bn revenue in 2030 should put the stock about 7x higher. Per @SnubieDotCom, its Alp pouch is expanding outside the US with new strengths and flavors in the EU. Its marketing genius suits a market where marketing is basically forbidden, and it has stolen share from large incumbents before. Downside is about $30 a share, roughly 60% lower, if Alp and FRE are banned outright. x.com x.com
