Turning Point Brands looks extremely interesting after falling about 60% from its highs, as it has become almost a pure play on nicotine pouches over the past two years. The new CEO may kitchen-sink results and the chart is unattractive, but betting on a materially lower price before upcoming catalysts play out looks increasingly poor. x.com 

Philip Morris's growth valuation is vulnerable because Velo is ramping while moving from 15 to 20 ZYN pouches per can effectively cuts the price per pouch by 25%. At 29-30x earnings, the timing suggests ZYN is getting beaten; if volumes fall and the multiple drops to 17x, PM could really tank. Combustibles are in terminal decline, and PM trades like Altria despite half its yield and twice its multiple. The bigger pack may be right long term, and ETF flows and baskets could foil a short. x.com  … Show more

Turning Point Brands carries too much approval risk to warrant investment, even though the story makes sense. Management sees regulatory enforcement as a net positive that raises a hurdle smaller players can't clear, calls its ALP joint venture highly valuable though the plan is vague, and expects heavy promotion from big rivals to fade, leaving a more stable, higher-margin industry in three years. What it will do with a recent capital raise is undisclosed. x.com  x.com