Turning Point Brands is one of the best setups as its expansion comes faster than expected. Line of sight to $2bn revenue in 2030 should put the stock about 7x higher. Per @SnubieDotCom, its Alp pouch is expanding outside the US with new strengths and flavors in the EU. Its marketing genius suits a market where marketing is basically forbidden, and it has stolen share from large incumbents before. Downside is about $30 a share, roughly 60% lower, if Alp and FRE are banned outright. x.com  x.com 

Philip Morris's growth valuation is vulnerable because Velo is ramping while moving from 15 to 20 ZYN pouches per can effectively cuts the price per pouch by 25%. At 29-30x earnings, the timing suggests ZYN is getting beaten; if volumes fall and the multiple drops to 17x, PM could really tank. Combustibles are in terminal decline, and PM trades like Altria despite half its yield and twice its multiple. The bigger pack may be right long term, and ETF flows and baskets could foil a short. x.com  … Show more

Turning Point Brands carries too much approval risk to warrant investment, even though the story makes sense. Management sees regulatory enforcement as a net positive that raises a hurdle smaller players can't clear, calls its ALP joint venture highly valuable though the plan is vague, and expects heavy promotion from big rivals to fade, leaving a more stable, higher-margin industry in three years. What it will do with a recent capital raise is undisclosed. x.com  x.com 

Philip Morris faces a more complicated shareholder outlook as nicotine-pouch competition intensifies despite healthy U.S. demand. ZYN shipment volume grew 4.2% year over year in Q3, while Philip Morris is increasing investment, expanding formats and adjusting prices to defend share. x.com 

Big Tobacco remains attractive because scale lowers unit costs and nicotine substitution can shift consumption beyond cigarettes. Cigarettes are homogeneous, so volume lowers costs; Sweden's shift to snus and nicotine pouches shows where consumption can move. The screen ranks tobacco among the strongest subsectors on fundamentals and market pricing. x.com  x.com  x.com  x.com 

Developments around Altria's on! nicotine pouch brand look unfavorable, with new flavors coming in Q4 for on! Plus. x.com 

Nike looks overvalued at about 25.6x forward earnings for a business guiding to high-single-digit revenue declines. At $32 on $1.25 of EPS, per the lowered guidance @TrendSpider reports, plus a 5% dividend, tobacco stocks like Altria should triple if that is the going rate for shrinking sales. Nike does not merit a tobacco multiple: it angered its distributors, faces more premium rivals and new entrants, has less loyal customers, is no government-mandated duopoly and pays for costly marketing. … Show more

British American Tobacco is a cigarette turnaround story nobody is talking about, with the stock up 100% in 18 months while paying a 6-10% dividend. x.com 

Philip Morris is collecting the inheritance as nicotine moves from cigarettes to smoke-free products, after choosing a decade ago to replace its own core business. Smoke-free is now 40% of revenue, ZYN and IQOS grow 20%+ a year, and each smoke-free pack brings 2.5 times a cigarette's revenue. Sweden shows the path: under 5% of Swedes smoke daily after switching to snus and pouches. The $16B Swedish Match deal in 2022, called overpriced, made ZYN America's fastest-growing oral tobacco product. … Show more

Philip Morris offers profits outside everybody's favorite ten hyperscale stocks. On a walk around New York's East Village, literally every young woman seemed to be smoking a cigarette, Midwestern transplants as well as alternative crowds. Per Threadguy, the stock is quietly at all-time highs near $194 as vaping became embarrassing and Zyn took over. x.com