Tulip King
Head of Strategy at CounterpartyTV, Crypto Investor
Philip Morris offers profits outside everybody's favorite ten hyperscale stocks. On a walk around New York's East Village, literally every young woman seemed to be smoking a cigarette, Midwestern transplants as well as alternative crowds. Per Threadguy, the stock is quietly at all-time highs near $194 as vaping became embarrassing and Zyn took over. x.comÂ
Big Tobacco remains attractive because scale lowers unit costs and nicotine substitution can shift consumption beyond cigarettes. Cigarettes are homogeneous, so volume lowers costs; Sweden's shift to snus and nicotine pouches shows where consumption can move. The screen ranks tobacco among the strongest subsectors on fundamentals and market pricing. x.com x.com x.com x.comÂ
Philip Morris faces a more complicated shareholder outlook as nicotine-pouch competition intensifies despite healthy U.S. demand. ZYN shipment volume grew 4.2% year over year in Q3, while Philip Morris is increasing investment, expanding formats and adjusting prices to defend share. x.comÂ
Philip Morris's growth valuation is vulnerable because Velo is ramping while moving from 15 to 20 ZYN pouches per can effectively cuts the price per pouch by 25%. At 29-30x earnings, the timing suggests ZYN is getting beaten; if volumes fall and the multiple drops to 17x, PM could really tank. Combustibles are in terminal decline, and PM trades like Altria despite half its yield and twice its multiple. The bigger pack may be right long term, and ETF flows and baskets could foil a short. x.com … Show more
Philip Morris is collecting the inheritance as nicotine moves from cigarettes to smoke-free products, after choosing a decade ago to replace its own core business. Smoke-free is now 40% of revenue, ZYN and IQOS grow 20%+ a year, and each smoke-free pack brings 2.5 times a cigarette's revenue. Sweden shows the path: under 5% of Swedes smoke daily after switching to snus and pouches. The $16B Swedish Match deal in 2022, called overpriced, made ZYN America's fastest-growing oral tobacco product. … Show more
Altria, British American Tobacco and Philip Morris are priced as if headed to a terminal zero, so if that end date disappears, their valuations gain embedded convexity. Buybacks add EPS convexity by shrinking the share count, making a share of tobacco a different investment than owning the whole company. Fast-growing nicotine pouches, highlighted in a Reuters report shared by @tobaccoinsider, are the focus for a future beyond cigarettes. x.comÂ
Philip Morris is too richly valued, at a 25.5x trailing P/E, a 6% premium to its sector, and a PEGY of 2.14x. Beaten-down staples such as Campbell's could be a safer contrarian place to be if the economy turns rocky or enters recession next year. x.comÂ
Safe-haven stocks such as Altria, Philip Morris, Starbucks, Cboe, CAVA and Costco deserve attention in this market; they are on fire this week. Walmart, Coca-Cola, Apollo, Procter & Gamble and Visa are also showing strong setups. x.comÂ
Turning Point Brands looks extremely interesting after falling about 60% from its highs, as it has become almost a pure play on nicotine pouches over the past two years. The new CEO may kitchen-sink results and the chart is unattractive, but betting on a materially lower price before upcoming catalysts play out looks increasingly poor. x.comÂ
Emerging-market nicotine names are an overlooked way to play smokers switching to pouches, often at a fraction of their parents' multiples. RLX Technology, China's vape leader turning to pouches, holds about $2.25B of net cash against a $2.6B market cap, grew 2025 revenue 44%, launched AirPouch and has an explicit M&A strategy. Sampoerna, 92.5% owned by Philip Morris and Indonesia's largest tobacco company at 34.9% share, sells ZYN and its own Shiro pouches and hosts PMI's ASEAN smoke-free hub. … Show more
Developments around Altria's on! nicotine pouch brand look unfavorable, with new flavors coming in Q4 for on! Plus. x.comÂ
