Temple 8 Research
AI Buildout, Macro & Energy Infrastructure Research
Philip Morris's growth valuation is vulnerable because Velo is ramping while moving from 15 to 20 ZYN pouches per can effectively cuts the price per pouch by 25%. At 29-30x earnings, the timing suggests ZYN is getting beaten; if volumes fall and the multiple drops to 17x, PM could really tank. Combustibles are in terminal decline, and PM trades like Altria despite half its yield and twice its multiple. The bigger pack may be right long term, and ETF flows and baskets could foil a short. x.com … Show more
Procter & Gamble is attractive at about 21.5x earnings. It is not a bargain, but it offers a modest margin of safety with growth picking up in 2027 and 2028, supporting a projected 12-month return of 20%. x.comÂ
Philip Morris faces a more complicated shareholder outlook as nicotine-pouch competition intensifies despite healthy U.S. demand. ZYN shipment volume grew 4.2% year over year in Q3, while Philip Morris is increasing investment, expanding formats and adjusting prices to defend share. x.comÂ
Nike looks overvalued at about 25.6x forward earnings for a business guiding to high-single-digit revenue declines. At $32 on $1.25 of EPS, per the lowered guidance @TrendSpider reports, plus a 5% dividend, tobacco stocks like Altria should triple if that is the going rate for shrinking sales. Nike does not merit a tobacco multiple: it angered its distributors, faces more premium rivals and new entrants, has less loyal customers, is no government-mandated duopoly and pays for costly marketing. … Show more
Turning Point Brands looks extremely interesting after falling about 60% from its highs, as it has become almost a pure play on nicotine pouches over the past two years. The new CEO may kitchen-sink results and the chart is unattractive, but betting on a materially lower price before upcoming catalysts play out looks increasingly poor. x.comÂ
Philip Morris offers profits outside everybody's favorite ten hyperscale stocks. On a walk around New York's East Village, literally every young woman seemed to be smoking a cigarette, Midwestern transplants as well as alternative crowds. Per Threadguy, the stock is quietly at all-time highs near $194 as vaping became embarrassing and Zyn took over. x.comÂ
British American Tobacco is a cigarette turnaround story nobody is talking about, with the stock up 100% in 18 months while paying a 6-10% dividend. x.comÂ
Coca-Cola's valuation is no longer compelling despite strong operational execution. Shares trade at about 26.7 times earnings versus a historical average of 22.3, so much of the near-term optimism is priced in. Continued earnings growth can support the premium, but the margin of safety is considerably smaller. x.comÂ
Safe-haven stocks such as Altria, Philip Morris, Starbucks, Cboe, CAVA and Costco deserve attention in this market; they are on fire this week. Walmart, Coca-Cola, Apollo, Procter & Gamble and Visa are also showing strong setups. x.comÂ
Philip Morris is collecting the inheritance as nicotine moves from cigarettes to smoke-free products, after choosing a decade ago to replace its own core business. Smoke-free is now 40% of revenue, ZYN and IQOS grow 20%+ a year, and each smoke-free pack brings 2.5 times a cigarette's revenue. Sweden shows the path: under 5% of Swedes smoke daily after switching to snus and pouches. The $16B Swedish Match deal in 2022, called overpriced, made ZYN America's fastest-growing oral tobacco product. … Show more