Philip Morris's growth valuation is vulnerable because Velo is ramping while moving from 15 to 20 ZYN pouches per can effectively cuts the price per pouch by 25%. At 29-30x earnings, the timing suggests ZYN is getting beaten; if volumes fall and the multiple drops to 17x, PM could really tank. Combustibles are in terminal decline, and PM trades like Altria despite half its yield and twice its multiple. The bigger pack may be right long term, and ETF flows and baskets could foil a short. x.com  … Show more

Philip Morris faces a more complicated shareholder outlook as nicotine-pouch competition intensifies despite healthy U.S. demand. ZYN shipment volume grew 4.2% year over year in Q3, while Philip Morris is increasing investment, expanding formats and adjusting prices to defend share. x.com 

Philip Morris is collecting the inheritance as nicotine moves from cigarettes to smoke-free products, after choosing a decade ago to replace its own core business. Smoke-free is now 40% of revenue, ZYN and IQOS grow 20%+ a year, and each smoke-free pack brings 2.5 times a cigarette's revenue. Sweden shows the path: under 5% of Swedes smoke daily after switching to snus and pouches. The $16B Swedish Match deal in 2022, called overpriced, made ZYN America's fastest-growing oral tobacco product. … Show more

Big Tobacco remains attractive because scale lowers unit costs and nicotine substitution can shift consumption beyond cigarettes. Cigarettes are homogeneous, so volume lowers costs; Sweden's shift to snus and nicotine pouches shows where consumption can move. The screen ranks tobacco among the strongest subsectors on fundamentals and market pricing. x.com  x.com  x.com  x.com 

Philip Morris offers profits outside everybody's favorite ten hyperscale stocks. On a walk around New York's East Village, literally every young woman seemed to be smoking a cigarette, Midwestern transplants as well as alternative crowds. Per Threadguy, the stock is quietly at all-time highs near $194 as vaping became embarrassing and Zyn took over. x.com 

Developments around Altria's on! nicotine pouch brand look unfavorable, with new flavors coming in Q4 for on! Plus. x.com 

Turning Point Brands is one of the best setups as its expansion comes faster than expected. Line of sight to $2bn revenue in 2030 should put the stock about 7x higher. Per @SnubieDotCom, its Alp pouch is expanding outside the US with new strengths and flavors in the EU. Its marketing genius suits a market where marketing is basically forbidden, and it has stolen share from large incumbents before. Downside is about $30 a share, roughly 60% lower, if Alp and FRE are banned outright. x.com  x.com 

Altria, British American Tobacco and Philip Morris are priced as if headed to a terminal zero, so if that end date disappears, their valuations gain embedded convexity. Buybacks add EPS convexity by shrinking the share count, making a share of tobacco a different investment than owning the whole company. Fast-growing nicotine pouches, highlighted in a Reuters report shared by @tobaccoinsider, are the focus for a future beyond cigarettes. x.com