Innovation stocks no longer move inversely to Treasury yields, and that is the bull case. After the 2022 inflation shock, yields and these stocks have climbed together because yields are being pushed up by stronger real growth, AI capex, fiscal supply and fading recession fears, the same forces that lift disruptors' expected cash flows. The risk is a shift to deficits plus slowing growth, which would bring the old inverse correlation back immediately. x.com  x.com 

AI drug-discovery picks and shovels such as Ginkgo Bioworks, 10x Genomics, Twist Bioscience and Grail are priced on a fantasy, and secondary offerings are coming. The bet that AI will solve cancers and rare diseases within months ignores how drug discovery, regulation and trial enrollment actually work. Unlike the semiconductor comparison, these businesses have not inflected, mostly burn cash, trade at 20-30x sales and need equity to fund themselves. Buyers here become their liquidity. x.com  … Show more

Biotech's usual Q4 strength ahead of JPM season makes aggressive rallies in smaller names highly likely. ARKG is starting to break out, and PDS Biotechnology is showing multiple buy signals. If ARKG keeps running as expected, Nautilus Biotechnology, PDS Biotechnology and Quantum-Si could reasonably rally toward about $10 soon; broken chart structures would invalidate that view. x.com  x.com 

Tempus AI is being repriced because its acquisition of Personalis benefits directly from positive Moderna news, while short covering is still underway. Short interest is about 30 million shares, over eight days of normal 3-5 million share volume, and the three-day surge absorbed under a third of it. A small market cap makes the stock easy to push higher, and bullish divergences on the three-day and weekly charts usually last weeks to months. Resistance sits at 74-76, 80 and 84-86. x.com  x.com  … Show more

Moderna has almost 40% downside to its average analyst price target of $119.56, which makes the sudden rush to buy it hard to explain. x.com 

ARKG's genomics thesis faces a timing problem, as much of the index consists of companies with no important clinical data readouts until 2028 or later. Clinical trials remain painstakingly long, and AI is moving faster than trial progress can keep up with, raising the question of when the broader biotech theme becomes overextended. x.com 

Moderna is not a long here because its valuation is now super stretched after a huge one-day move. Per @A_May_MD, Moderna added $45B in market cap on a dataless phase 3 press release in adjuvant combination melanoma, with a drug it owns only half of. Non-experts expecting AI to cure cancer and develop drugs at insane speed are out of their league. The news is great, but risk needs managing, and this may work only as a trade. x.com  x.com  x.com  x.com  x.com 

Moderna looks like a risky hold over the weekend after a rough week and a potential secondary-offering overhang. x.com 

Genomics stocks appear to be benefiting from AI, with the ARK Genomic Revolution ETF clearly outpacing broader biotech. x.com 

Biotech tools stocks such as Charles River and Illumina are in a narrative-driven mania while their fundamentals haven't really moved. Charles River is ripping after reaffirming guidance for negative revenue growth this year. Illumina hasn't grown in five years, yet trades at over 50x earnings and 35x EV/EBITDA, with merely fine margins. Five straight years of easier comparisons are being sold as a coiled spring. x.com  x.com  x.com