FedEx Freight has significant upside on even a partial re-rating toward Old Dominion and Saia, as onshoring construction drives LTL demand. If housing reverts, demand could really amp up. Diesel costs are a concern, though FedEx Freight can add surcharges or raise rates in near real time, unlike garbage haulers Republic Services and Waste Management, which are locked into long-term municipal contracts. Tax-loss selling is the other risk, and the near term is hard to call. x.com 

GM, Comcast, CVS, Bristol Myers Squibb, Pfizer, Citigroup, Lululemon, UPS, FedEx, Disney, PepsiCo, Target, Netflix and Uber are favorite value stocks right now. The picks rest on valuation, free cash flow, balance-sheet quality and how much pessimism is already priced in. x.com 

The oil trade is over because crude can no longer make higher highs, even with Middle East crude exports back near their peaks. Oil is trading around its average price of the last eight months and set a lower high in September, so it is only a matter of time before the market gives up. Crude looks about to fall through the floor, with rates following and high-beta stocks then going vertical as every dip gets bought. x.com  x.com  x.com 

US stocks face a tougher stretch ahead, warranting patience. A hawkish Warsh caused a bear flattening of the yield curve, and the 30-year yield recently hit its highest since 2007. A Fed hike on September 16 looks likely because the October meeting falls just before the midterms. September has the worst seasonality, midterm years are worse than normal, and bipartisan pushback on data-center expansion pressures AI infrastructure. A Venezuelan oil deal may lower oil prices near term. x.com  x.com  … Show more

United Parcel Service offers attractive upside plus a dividend yield above 7%, making it a defensive diversifier as capital rotates out of crowded S&P 500 sectors. The stock has consolidated for months in a high-timeframe support range around $92, tilting risk-reward toward buyers. The 12-month target is $165, at high-timeframe resistance and the 0.5-0.618 Fibonacci golden pocket, roughly 60% upside before dividends. x.com  x.com 

Occidental Petroleum is mispriced at about 8.4x trailing earnings and an 8.7% free cash flow yield during an oil shock. Eight times earnings in an oil shock is not a valuation but a clerical error with a ticker symbol. Iran cannot beat the US Navy, so it is waiting out America's vote in 49 days, since Iran does not vote until 2028; owning Occidental beats hiding in Treasuries. x.com 

US large-cap equities look too close to their highs for a weak macro backdrop. Oil has crossed $100, rates are at 5%, inflation is worse than reported and real jobs are scarce, yet the market sits only 2% off its highs. The S&P 500 is about to lose its 50-day moving average. x.com  x.com 

UPS's post-earnings selloff is unjustified and should reverse quickly. It beat and reaffirmed guidance; revenue fell only because it ended its Amazon contract to generate more profit, which investors already knew. The selling was likely algorithm-driven. x.com 

Crude oil looks set for a pullback because energy is more overbought than 95% of sessions in two years while market stress is deteriorating. Defense and drone sectors that rallied on the same geopolitical thesis are already breaking down. IEA members are releasing a record 400 million barrels of emergency reserves, and $1M of put spreads target a roughly 10% drop by mid-April. Oil also trades outside its Monte Carlo probability cone, though 8 of 9 models still say bullish. x.com  x.com  x.com  … Show more

Vista Energy grows over 20% yet trades at about 10x earnings, while most big oil companies trade at 20-25x with single-digit growth. It also works as an oil hedge. x.com  x.com