Luca - Cryptic Trades
Markets Researcher at Cryptic Trades
United Parcel Service offers attractive upside plus a dividend yield above 7%, making it a defensive diversifier as capital rotates out of crowded S&P 500 sectors. The stock has consolidated for months in a high-timeframe support range around $92, tilting risk-reward toward buyers. The 12-month target is $165, at high-timeframe resistance and the 0.5-0.618 Fibonacci golden pocket, roughly 60% upside before dividends. x.com x.comÂ
UPS is cheap against its earnings, at 17x trailing and 12x next year's versus an industry norm of 19x. Fair value is $134.92-171.72, or 19x next year's forecast $8.07 EPS give or take 12%, leaving the stock about 30% under the low end. The case leans on that forecast, which is 50% above trailing earnings, and rests on valuation levels only, without fundamental work. x.comÂ
UPS's post-earnings selloff is unjustified and should reverse quickly. It beat and reaffirmed guidance; revenue fell only because it ended its Amazon contract to generate more profit, which investors already knew. The selling was likely algorithm-driven. x.comÂ
United Parcel Service is listed fourth in a ten-part thread, with the argument contained in an attached image rather than the post text. x.comÂ
UPS benefits the most from falling oil prices, which should come once Trump eventually reaches a deal with Iran and puts the conflict to bed. x.comÂ
FedEx should get a good tailwind from falling oil after an excellent earnings report last week, making it a decent setup given the market. x.comÂ
