Sigma Zero Capital
Founder of Sigma Zero Capital, Thematic Trader
Braze's post-earnings selloff over falling gross margins may reverse, as happened at Twilio. Twilio's gross margin fell from 55% to 48% as messaging volumes rose, yet the stock nearly tripled once growth reached the mid-teens. A post the author replies to argues Braze is a complex infrastructure tool for microtargeting customers, not a messaging app that can be vibe-coded, and that it is taking share from Salesforce and Adobe with reaccelerating organic growth. x.comÂ
Zeta Global's contracted revenue gives growth more visibility. RPO expected to be recognized within 12 months reached $218.7M, up from $71.3M in Q3 2025. Management makes a compelling comparison with Salesforce's $5.66B Braze deal: Zeta has about twice Braze's forward revenue, higher guided FY26 free cash flow than Braze's FY26 actual, and a lower revenue multiple. That gap alone does not prove Zeta is undervalued; management sees a chance to win customers during integration. x.com x.comÂ
Salesforce's proposed Braze acquisition opens another avenue for growth. The $5.7 billion all-cash price raises questions, though quality growth companies command a premium; whether this deal proves worthwhile remains to be seen. Closing is subject to Braze shareholder and regulatory approvals. x.comÂ
Braze's premium looks unjustified at 7x EV/sales against 20% year-over-year revenue growth. It is a great company with a great product, but that does not make the stock worth the premium. x.com x.comÂ
Braze is an AI winner the market is pricing like a loser: organic growth is accelerating, yet it trades at about 2.5 times forward sales. Revenue grew 24% year over year, another quarter of acceleration, with net retention up, bookings up 50%, and AI products generally available ahead of schedule. The bar for a public SaaS company to count as an AI winner is very high right now, but Braze is delivering the revenue acceleration the market says it wants. x.com x.comÂ
Twilio looks set to emerge as a leader in the software theme in the coming weeks after strong earnings and guidance. It is in a clean Stage 2 uptrend with a clear power earnings gap today; a pullback to the 9/21-day EMAs or near the gap low would offer better risk/reward. x.comÂ
Software is flexing its muscles, showing AI is not killing the sector. Twilio, Atlassian, Cloudflare and JFrog all showed better-than-expected fundamental strength, setting software up for a strong session. x.com x.comÂ
Salesforce is underweight because it is adding debt for buybacks just as its AI pivot makes growth less certain. It issued $25 billion of senior notes to fund an accelerated buyback, and S&P revised its outlook to negative as leverage nears the 2x downgrade trigger; weak demand forced a 40 basis point concession. Core SaaS growth is slowing to high single digits, and Agentforce plus Data 360, at $2.9 billion ARR, are under 7% of revenue, exposed if AI seat cannibalization outpaces usage credits. … Show more
Zeta Global's 27% drop in 2026 came from the broader tech selloff and high short interest, not fundamentals, since it raised revenue guidance to $1.73 billion. It is an AI-native marketing data platform with a real data moat. As brands shift ad spend toward AI-driven targeting, Zeta sits where first-party data meets machine learning at enterprise scale. x.comÂ
Salesforce's $25 billion accelerated buyback leans on debt in a way that risks leveraging its future, as happened at Fiserv. Fiserv cut its share count 21.5% with debt-funded buybacks averaging $167 a share, and now trades under $60 as growth fell. Salesforce can afford this round with $14 billion of free cash flow, but growth is slowing to single digits, AI isn't yet transforming its ecosystem, and its goodwill-heavy book limits deals. The risk is that multiples compress and it doubles down. … Show more
