TrendSpider
Trading Platform, Charting/Scanning/Backtesting, Alerts/Bots & Options Flow
Netflix's improving engagement and record free-cash-flow yield make its continued stock decline look misplaced. Viewing hours rose 24% year over year; CEO Greg Peters said Q3 churn improved globally and in the US, beating forecasts. CFO Spence Neumann expects sustained double-digit revenue growth. x.com x.comÂ
Netflix's more reasonable valuation and efforts to get leaner make the stock tempting here. Its 18 P/E has come back down to earth and its forward valuation no longer trades at an expensive premium; Q3 earnings were solid, it laid off executives and 6% of staff, and it is significantly expanding live sports. Under $60 would be a smash buy. x.com x.comÂ
Netflix's earnings growth cannot keep relying on price increases or a one-time ad-tier rollout when future ad growth depends on impressions. The password-sharing crackdown, ad tier and repeated price hikes amid declining time spent signal a mature business; podcasts and live sports look like attempts to find another growth leg. There is no reason to own the stock beyond its discount to historical valuation, which it should command. x.com x.comÂ
Netflix's control of its own content keeps growth avenues open even as quality and popularity ebb and flow. Production is costly, but being able to make more is hugely underrated. YouTube pays creators more than double what Netflix spends; its content is not free. Ads need time to gain traction, with live sports where they should prove their worth. Solid earnings outweigh weak short-term guidance; Netflix should become one of Wall Street's hottest stocks again, with targets well into the $150s. … Show more
Netflix's long-term risk/reward is turning increasingly attractive as the stock tests a key weekly support zone at $65-68. There is no real reason to panic; it is an easy buy for long-term investors, and current prices look interesting for gradual accumulation. The long-term trend is still bearish, with the stock below its 200-week moving average and SuperTrend Cloud and selling pressure elevated; resistance sits at $74-77. x.comÂ
Netflix faces high costs to keep producing major hits, while live TV is expensive and competitive and viewing habits are changing rapidly. It remains a good business and the stock should eventually find support, but even after its decline it is not appealing at this level. x.comÂ
Netflix's growing free cash flow leaves room to keep returning capital to shareholders. It repurchased about $4.8 billion of shares in Q3 and nearly $13 billion over the past 12 months, supporting long-term bullishness. x.comÂ
Netflix looks set for a major earnings inflection, with a 35.2x forward P/E against 48.5x today. Earnings are growing 62.4% year over year on healthy 18.3% revenue growth, showing strong fundamental momentum. x.comÂ
Netflix's low-double-digit earnings growth, which could slow to single digits, makes 20x P/E an extremely fair 2030 multiple. Projected 2030 EPS of $6.30 implies a $126 target. From $63, the modeled 18.9% annual return over four years is decent but not exciting; from $45, it is 22.9% over five years. Netflix is not cheap enough yet, but $45 gets attention. x.comÂ
Netflix has a second growth engine most people ignore, with advertising revenue doubling to $3 billion this year. Management guides 12-14% revenue growth at a 31.5% operating margin, and its content moat deepens every year it outspends everyone. x.comÂ