Netflix looks set for a major earnings inflection, with a 35.2x forward P/E against 48.5x today. Earnings are growing 62.4% year over year on healthy 18.3% revenue growth, showing strong fundamental momentum. x.comÂ
Simjo
Fundamental Equity Analyst, Geopolitics
Netflix's more reasonable valuation and efforts to get leaner make the stock tempting here. Its 18 P/E has come back down to earth and its forward valuation no longer trades at an expensive premium; Q3 earnings were solid, it laid off executives and 6% of staff, and it is significantly expanding live sports. Under $60 would be a smash buy. x.com x.comÂ
Netflix's control of its own content keeps growth avenues open even as quality and popularity ebb and flow. Production is costly, but being able to make more is hugely underrated. YouTube pays creators more than double what Netflix spends; its content is not free. Ads need time to gain traction, with live sports where they should prove their worth. Solid earnings outweigh weak short-term guidance; Netflix should become one of Wall Street's hottest stocks again, with targets well into the $150s. … Show more
Netflix's low-double-digit earnings growth, which could slow to single digits, makes 20x P/E an extremely fair 2030 multiple. Projected 2030 EPS of $6.30 implies a $126 target. From $63, the modeled 18.9% annual return over four years is decent but not exciting; from $45, it is 22.9% over five years. Netflix is not cheap enough yet, but $45 gets attention. x.comÂ
Netflix's latest price increase is a bullish signal for the stock. x.com x.comÂ
Netflix's improving engagement and record free-cash-flow yield make its continued stock decline look misplaced. Viewing hours rose 24% year over year; CEO Greg Peters said Q3 churn improved globally and in the US, beating forecasts. CFO Spence Neumann expects sustained double-digit revenue growth. x.com x.comÂ
Netflix's earnings growth cannot keep relying on price increases or a one-time ad-tier rollout when future ad growth depends on impressions. The password-sharing crackdown, ad tier and repeated price hikes amid declining time spent signal a mature business; podcasts and live sports look like attempts to find another growth leg. There is no reason to own the stock beyond its discount to historical valuation, which it should command. x.com x.comÂ
Netflix's growing free cash flow leaves room to keep returning capital to shareholders. It repurchased about $4.8 billion of shares in Q3 and nearly $13 billion over the past 12 months, supporting long-term bullishness. x.comÂ
Netflix no longer needs perfect execution after its valuation reset to about 20-22x forward earnings and 5.5-6x forward sales, from 50x+ and 10x+ at the peak. It is still expected to top $50B in 2026 revenue with double-digit growth, a 30%+ operating margin and substantial free cash flow; the post-earnings drop came from a slight Q3 guidance miss, not a broken business. The chart may be basing, with support at $68-70 and invalidation near $65; reclaiming $76-80 would signal momentum shifting. … Show more
Netflix is not that cheap despite its collapsing stock price and lowest forward P/E in years. At about 20x forward earnings, with EPS growth driven mostly by buybacks, it trades at a 1 PEG, which is not compelling for low double-digit growth. There are better opportunities elsewhere. x.comÂ
Netflix has a second growth engine most people ignore, with advertising revenue doubling to $3 billion this year. Management guides 12-14% revenue growth at a 31.5% operating margin, and its content moat deepens every year it outspends everyone. x.comÂ