The need for more memory evident in every company's earnings report makes the market's negative view of Sandisk hard to understand. Yet splitting a stock above $1,000 is one of the dumbest moves a company can make: it hands market makers the ability to manipulate the shares through options, a risk for Sandisk. x.com  x.com 

Sandisk's earnings growth makes its valuation look unusually low, with guidance showing no slowdown. Revenue rose 378% year over year, and $52.5 GAAP EPS implies a 6.1 annualized P/E, below Micron's. Sandisk's roughly 85% gross margin also compares favorably with SK hynix's apparently sub-50% NAND margin. Next-quarter guidance calls for $12.2 billion-$12.6 billion of revenue and $55-$57 non-GAAP EPS. x.com  x.com  x.com 

Sandisk's datacenter shipments and restrained bit-supply plan strengthen its growth case, without settling contract protection in a downturn. Management attributed roughly 60% of fiscal Q1 revenue growth to volume and 40% to price; datacenter sales rose 61% sequentially to $4.8B, supplying 88% of total growth. It retains mid-to-high-teens bit growth rather than accelerating supply. Consumer sales fell 29%, and the CFO cautioned against carrying Q2's growth rate into fiscal Q3. x.com  x.com 

Sandisk's fast-growing data-center revenue strengthens its case among memory names with upside. Data-center revenue rose 61% quarter over quarter; revenue of $11.03B, adjusted EPS of $49.51 and adjusted gross margin of 85.1% all exceeded estimates. For upside among Micron, Sandisk and Kioxia, Micron ranks first, then Sandisk, then Kioxia, until further guidance. x.com  x.com 

Micron's cheaper forward valuation, stronger revenue growth and higher five-year ROIC make it the better buy than Sandisk, alongside its exposure to AI-driven HBM demand. Per StockAnalysis, Micron's revenue growth is 256% versus 175%, forward P/E is 5.12 versus 5.84, and five-year ROIC is 27.24% versus 21.47%. Sandisk leads on projected EPS growth, at 23.96% versus Micron's 17.16%. x.com  x.com  x.com 

Micron and SanDisk are headed for an epic selloff eventually, driven by market FOMO rather than the companies' fundamentals. Investors are piling in, and once a few sell, many will follow, much like Strategy in 2024 or AppLovin last year. It could come in three months or tomorrow, and the stocks may recover afterward, but stocks don't go straight up. x.com  x.com  x.com 

Sandisk is in an accumulation stage that typically comes before a brutal rally, with smart money buying aggressively now that the psychological cycle is over. Memory is the modern-day gold and the core of data centers, and the higher timeframe is primed for an insane breakout. x.com 

Nebius and the rest of the AI trade should be carried higher if Micron beats significantly in tomorrow's earnings, a beat the whole AI trade is banking on. There is a better than 50% chance the AI trade starts its next leg up this month; SanDisk tripled over six months after its last pullback in March. The risk/reward favors sizing in heavily, an opportunity the market offers only once in a while. x.com  x.com  x.com 

SanDisk has likely topped for this cycle, and memory stocks such as Micron are rolling over even though fundamentals still look incredible. In cycles, price weakens first, estimates and targets fall later, and the narrative flips only after the damage is done, with vicious failed rallies along the way. SanDisk already guided lower, its gross margin has plateaued and price action has been terrible, so it likely goes lower. Sell on technicals rather than waiting for fundamentals to erode. x.com  … Show more

Rising memory contract prices strengthen the case for memory stocks still far below their highs. JPMorgan forecasts Q4 DRAM prices up 13% and NAND up 18%; Micron is 28% below its 52-week high, Seagate 44%, Sandisk 47% and Western Digital 55%. x.com