ElonTrades
Founder of Signal Labs, Crypto/Equity Research & Capital Flows
DTCC's tokenization working group of more than 50 firms validates Ondo and should lift USDC demand for Circle. Ondo helps shape the group's standards, boosting its real-world-asset products ahead of live trades in July, while Circle gains from rising USDC use for on-chain settlement, collateral and liquidity on the new platform. Canton Network benefits most directly, through its partnership to mint tokenized Treasuries and DTCC's co-chairing of the Canton Foundation. x.comÂ
Circle's programmable digital dollars matter more when markets tighten, because institutions in downturns prioritize liquidity, cost and counterparty risk. Larry Fink says $150 oil would make a recession 100% likely; Circle improves the money layer with dollars that move globally 24/7, while Canton improves settlement rails. The path likely runs from a risk-off crash, to infrastructure winners emerging, to institutional rails getting valued. x.comÂ
Circle's USDC has a temporary EU go-to-market moat. The European Banking Authority gave USDC alone 'significant' stablecoin status among 45 e-money tokens under MiCA, adding a regulatory advantage to Circle's case as a sleeping giant. x.com x.comÂ
Ondo's reach to investors is expanding through Robinhood Chain. Its tokenized stocks and ETFs are now available there, opening up opportunities for trading around the clock. x.comÂ
Circle is unlikely to win corporate treasuries, because companies holding mostly T-bills gain nothing by handing those assets to Circle so it can collect their yield. That answers @drGhostinOO7, who argues corporate treasuries are waiting to be tokenized and Circle can take market share from SWIFT. x.comÂ
Stablecoins and tokenization are clearly heading one way, and risk-reward in Coinbase, Robinhood, SECZ and Circle heavily favors buyers. In ten days, the SEC chair said tokenization rules are moving toward a long-term framework, the SEC allowed on-chain trading of tokenized stocks, and the CFTC sent crypto market rules to White House review. IBM linked to Swift's blockchain for 24/7 tokenized deposits, and ARK is tokenizing its venture fund holding OpenAI and Anthropic. x.comÂ
Stablecoin issuance looks set to explode, lifting Circle, Ethereum, Solana, Coinbase and Robinhood. Per Bloomberg, Washington is weighing a public-private push of regulated dollar stablecoins overseas to reinforce the dollar and boost short-term Treasury demand. If enacted, issuance could top $500 billion or approach $1 trillion in two to three years. Circle is the likeliest issuer partner, Ethereum and Solana are the main settlement chains, and Coinbase and Robinhood gain as trading platforms. … Show more
Circle's long-term multi-bagger thesis, that USDC becomes a key part of next-generation payment rails, no longer looks on track. In just the past few days, 140 entities, including many major names, partnered with OUSD, and Robinhood announced a 7% yield program via USDG. Circle can still be a successful business, and its fall to the targeted ~$64 entry level looks justified by fundamentals, so the 'Circle is poised to dominate' case is crumbling. x.comÂ
Circle is the crypto infrastructure play with real adoption, as the company behind the USDC stablecoin. x.comÂ
Ondo and Centrifuge are building the issuance, distribution, liquidity and asset-management rails that benefit as more assets move onchain, and their value does not yet reflect how fast the product layer is expanding. Tokenized stocks, at $2.46B of market cap, produced $808M of daily volume, about 60% of the total, while tokenized ETFs at $583M traded $163M, turnover close to stocks and almost 5x commodities. Robinhood leads now, but the opportunity should expand beyond one platform. x.comÂ
Circle faces pricing pressure because stablecoin infrastructure has low barriers to entry, which is why it stays an underweight with only small exposure. The risk showed when Circle fell 13% as Stripe, Coinbase and BlackRock backed a rival stablecoin, Open USD. x.com x.comÂ
Circle is building a network-effect moat by tying the biggest exchanges and payment players to USDC, to compete as the default settlement asset in trading and payments. Its deeper Binance deal is now its only exchange tie combining equity, incentive fees and wallet integration, second only to Coinbase. Coinbase, Binance and Hyperliquid hold where money sits; Intuit, JCB, Nium and Tazapay move it; CPN and Arc aim to settle it. Dominance isn't secured yet, and rivals are expanding too. x.com x.comÂ
