Prof
Macro & Equity Commentary, Risk & Market Psychology
Palantir's growth is far outrunning expectations, led by US commercial revenue, and it raised its outlook. Q2 revenue rose 93% to $1.935 billion versus $1.81 billion expected, with US commercial up 149% and US government up 90%; adjusted EPS of $0.41 beat estimates of about $0.35. It raised 2026 revenue guidance to $8.15-8.16 billion, 82% growth, and expects US commercial revenue above $3.42 billion, 134% growth. x.comÂ
Palantir's government contract activity is growing sharply, supporting its resilience despite the share-price pullback. Its $2.1 billion in 12-month obligations is up 184% from the prior year, among the strongest increases tracked. The Cryptic Bottom Index remains green despite the pullback. Its score is among the highest in the Cryptic Research System, led by growth and profitability, though catalysts and valuation score weakest. x.com x.com x.comÂ
Palantir's share price demands unusually fast cash and profit growth despite its strong business. At roughly $210, it implies 48.5% annual growth for five years; at 32% annual growth, the shares would be worth $96.64. It is a Watch, not a Buy at today's prices. Q2 sales rose 93% and cash flow after employee stock pay was $2.52 billion over 12 months, but government concentration, cancellable contracts and rising stock pay remain risks. x.com x.com x.com x.com x.com x.com x.com x.comÂ
Continued improvement in fundamentals and technicals could carry Palantir to megacap scale. A $1 trillion market cap is a realistic destination for strong growth companies, and Palantir appears on that path, though its timing is uncertain. Drawdowns remain opportunities to accumulate until the thesis changes. x.comÂ
Palantir's accelerating commercial growth, sticky contracts and high margins make it a standout aggressive growth name despite its premium valuation. Q1 2026 revenue rose 85% to $1.63B, US commercial revenue grew 133% and government 84%, and full-year guidance was raised to about 71% growth. CEO Alex Karp cites overwhelming demand it cannot fully meet, showing real platform adoption rather than hype. x.comÂ
Palantir Technologies is exceptional as a business but overpriced at about 90 times forward earnings, so much of its future is already paid for. Revenue is growing 85% with a 60% operating margin, 150% net dollar retention and about $7.7 billion in revenue guided for the year, numbers that are genuinely rare at its size. Being right about the business and wrong about the price is still a loss. x.comÂ
Palantir smashed earnings despite heavy hate this year, and it is flashing the same bullish indicator signal that preceded its last 1,382% rise. A breakout is under way. x.comÂ
Palantir may be undervalued because the market values it as a software company while its opportunity is much bigger. It spans AI deployment, government contracts, enterprise adoption and mission-critical data infrastructure, and expensive stocks can stay expensive when the business keeps expanding. x.comÂ
Palantir is still expensive even after falling about 45% from its highs, so it is a great business but not yet a great stock to add. At its $207 peak it priced in perfection, at roughly 70x 2026 sales and 230x trailing earnings; near $113 it trades at about 38x sales and 127x earnings as the business keeps executing. Interest returns near $100, with more aggressive buying in the $80-90 range or if the stock moves sideways long enough for revenue and earnings to grow into the multiple. x.comÂ
Palantir is a special company whose valuation, while not cheap, is far more reasonable than before and below some high-growth peers. This quarter is expected to bring $1.81B of revenue and $1.08B of operating income, 50% revenue and 100% operating income compounding over three years, and it usually beats by a sizable margin. At 95x earnings it is steep, but EPS is growing 96% this year with 43% compounding expected after, so it should not be cheap. x.com x.com x.com x.com x.comÂ