Prof
Macro & Equity Commentary, Risk & Market Psychology
SoFi's newly reported growth widens the gap between its operating results and a selloff driven by interest-rate fears. Revenue grew 45%, EPS 67% and members 35%, while the stock had fallen nearly 50%; the business is seen as able to succeed across rate environments. x.comÂ
SoFi's CEO buying is the one 'Tail the Whale' signal that has not worked yet. The CEO bought about $2.5 million worth of shares on five occasions this year at $15.73-$18.06, while SoFi now trades at $14.30. x.comÂ
SoFi's egregious dilution means business growth may fail to benefit existing shareholders. Its share count rose 61% over five years, reducing an original 1% stake to about 0.6%; even 61% earnings growth could leave earnings per share flat. As a bank, SoFi is already practically uninvestable by these standards, though dilution need not destroy value if the capital raised creates more value than the ownership surrendered. x.comÂ
Insider purchases make SoFi, Grab, Nebius and Oracle favorite buys because their executives and directors have committed their own money at prices above today's shares. SoFi CEO Anthony Noto bought $2.25M at $17.29 versus $14 now; Grab's CEO and COO bought about $30.9M, with shares at $2.80 versus $2.89 for the COO; Nebius director Arne Grimme bought $50K at $169.99 versus $165; Oracle director Stephen Rusckowski bought $3.48M at $139.35 versus $126. x.comÂ
SoFi's stronger revenue and earnings growth makes it worth staying with for at least another quarter. Per amitisinvesting, Q3 revenue rose 44% and adjusted EPS 64%, with 2027 revenue and EPS guidance above estimates. It still needs to show it can sustain the trajectory. x.com x.com x.comÂ
Robinhood's higher revenue and EPS make it clearly stronger than SoFi on these earnings. SoFi's post-earnings rally is unlikely to hold; its shares are headed for single digits. x.com x.comÂ
SoFi's revenue growth, earnings beat and raised guidance suggest its inflection is starting. Revenue grew 44%, and its initial 2027 outlook topped consensus. x.comÂ
SoFi's member and revenue growth now comes with rising profitability, strengthening its growth case. Q3 revenue grew 44% year over year to $1.39 billion, members rose 35% to 17.1 million, and adjusted EBITDA grew nearly 70%. Revenue and EPS beat estimates, and full-year adjusted net revenue guidance rose to about $5.04 billion. x.comÂ
Ondas, POET Technologies and SoFi are among the most-pumped stocks on X, driven mostly by retail frenzy while insiders own almost none of them. Ondas has a 31% short float and 0.11% insider ownership, POET 17% and 0.11%, and SoFi 16% and 1.50%. Even insiders don't trust them, so stay away. x.comÂ
SoFi CEO Anthony Noto is an incredible leader who does what he says and frequently buys his own stock, which has signaled big things coming. Per @basispointpod, he said the stock's year-to-date decline bothers him a ton and that he will work to deliver on the high standard SoFi is held to. x.comÂ