Retail Tanjiro
Investor & Swing Trader, Technical Analysis
Rocket Lab's bounce has room to run to $65 after buyers returned following shipment of Neutron's second stage to its Virginia launch site. A break above $65 before November 9 results remains the real test. x.comÂ
Investors rotating into cheaper stocks with more upside should ultimately benefit Rocket Lab and AST SpaceMobile. Both have already suffered major drawdowns. x.comÂ
Rocket Lab has no reason to climb back above $100 anytime soon without a huge catalyst. Earnings were OK but nothing to rave about, and Neutron was delayed. x.comÂ
Good SpaceX earnings could help Rocket Lab lead the new-space sector higher with a rally as violent as its capitulation. Rocket Lab is the sector leader outside SpaceX; its RSI is extremely oversold, the lower Bollinger band is overstretched and MACD's negative divergence is subsiding. Three upside gaps lie at $55.25-59.18, $64.22-65.71 and $73.11-74.76. The highest should fill before year-end, though the exact date is hard to predict. x.com x.comÂ
Rocket Lab is a great company worth owning at a discount, and its elevated volatility pays well to wait for one. It is the only US public rocket company at scale, its backlog grows every quarter and revenue is up 55% year over year. Its implied volatility is among the highest in the space sector, with IV rank above 60%, while weekly EMA clouds are green and daily RSI just hit 44. x.comÂ
Rocket Lab's highly volatile stock leaves some downside risk to the $54 value of its Iridium offer, even with the widened cap-collar range. Rocket Lab did not necessarily overpay compared with the certainty of an all-cash take-private in the mid-$40s, contrary to @OptionTheorist's view that it might have. x.comÂ
Rocket Lab's latest quarter supports a move toward $122, with growth, backlog and guidance all stepping up. Revenue cleared about $200M, up roughly 60% year over year, and backlog now exceeds $2B. Liquidity is strong, with about $1.5B in cash and more than $2B in total liquidity. Management again guided Q2 higher, to $232M versus a $208M street consensus. x.comÂ
Rocket Lab got bullish news right at a major support zone with a $266 million US Air Force contract. Per @amitisinvesting, the Alaska launches run through 2028 and extend its streak of defense wins, the drop from $150 to $60 looks aggressive, and Neutron, Golden Dome and the Iridium acquisition remain important future catalysts. x.comÂ
Rocket Lab could face a difficult 9-12 months because much of the space industry's future is already priced into equity valuations, even as its business and backlog grow. A monthly close below the $61 21-month EMA would raise the risk that the uptrend has ended and shift attention toward $35-45 for a better long-term entry; holding $61 preserves a more constructive reading. The company could still trade considerably higher over a longer horizon. x.comÂ
Rocket Lab is set up for a breakout as its technicals and fundamentals align. A W-bottom is forming, with price bouncing off $64.6 support. Q2 revenue hit a record $234 million, up 62% year over year, and backlog rose 137% to an all-time high of $2.36 billion. It won a $397 million Space Force SB-AMTI contract to build and launch Flatellites on Neutron and joined the $981 million NITE-STAR contract ceiling, showing it is a vertically integrated space company, not just a launch provider. x.comÂ