Social media has caused a lot of harm and is this generation's tobacco, which makes Reddit and Meta stocks not worth investing in. x.comÂ
YeahDave
Investor, Space/Energy/Defense/AI/Quantum
Social media bans for young users, now introduced in the UK after Australia, should hurt Snap far more than Meta. Apps in general are unappealing investments. x.comÂ
Reddit is not a sustainable business because its volunteer moderators are, in large part, far-left extremists. The point came up after Polymarket reported that a man accused of plotting an ISIS-inspired mass shooting moderated the r/doordash subreddit. x.comÂ
Social media stocks look worth buying because they trade at a discount while people stay hooked on social media. Usage is now a permanent part of life that cannot be taken away, contrary to @CryptoDan007's prediction that it will come to be seen as a low-class pastime. That makes Meta, Reddit, Pinterest and Snap all candidates to buy. x.com x.comÂ
Mark Zuckerberg will spend the rest of his career chasing another business as big as social media without finding it. Meta shareholders will suffer. x.comÂ
Efforts to penalize Meta make its shares unattractive to own. Vmaxpax raised possible further legal exposure if allegations in the Arizona case that Zuckerberg and Sandberg lied prove true; that could mean death by a thousand paper cuts. x.com x.comÂ
Meta looks very attractive after settling for $16.7 billion, far below the roughly $50 billion worst case and merely a slap on the wrist. The $1.4 trillion figure was never going to happen, and other lawsuits are even smaller. The more material concern is whether required changes to its algorithm or platform for young users hurt the product, and its Q2 explanation of capex strategy and ROI was the weakest among hyperscalers. It remains one not to own personally. x.com x.comÂ
Reddit's main business is declining and its data licensing business is too limited to make up for it. x.comÂ
Reddit's worsening US user growth threatens its revenue runway despite elite ARPU growth, revenue growth and margin expansion. US daily users fell 2% year over year and missed estimates by 7%; the Q4 guide was weak. It needs healthier user growth in its most important market to dispel Google/AI discovery fears. Forward indicators do not look promising, and the trend of positive estimate revisions will end. x.com x.comÂ
The social-media selloff looks way overblown, because AI makes these companies leaner and more profitable rather than disrupting them. Reddit is the clearest case at about 24x forward EV/FCF with 91% gross margins and 52% growth, despite being down 44.6% this year; Pinterest is down 32.2%. Meta's capex draws bear cases, but forward revenue growth of 30-33% at about 17x forward earnings shows that spending is delivering ROI. These are buys, held with some confusion. x.comÂ
Meta missed and lowered next quarter's guidance. Zuckerberg is good at spending but not at earning a return on it, as @JiminROI puts it, which is a reason to stay out of the stock. x.com x.comÂ