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YeahDave

Investor, Space/Energy/Defense/AI/Quantum

5 Jun, 22:42Latest

BRUN remains only a small side play, but critics' claims about its customers and crypto revenue are overstated. Anchor customer Thinking Machines raised $2B at a $12B valuation and signed a multibillion-dollar Google Cloud deal, and its $471.7M take-or-pay contract pays in full whether or not the compute is used; the fair concern is concentration, at about a third of backlog. Blockchain rewards fell to about 3% of revenue in Q1 2026 as lease revenue ramps. A big lock-up expiry hits Monday. x.com x.com

BRUN

3 Jun, 16:55

BRUN remains an interesting risk-reward side bet as backlog surges, though it is not an early Nebius. Its first 10-Q shows contracted backlog rising from $120M in December to $1.45B by June 1, Q1 revenue up 165%, and a $471.7M take-or-pay deal with Thinking Machines Lab. But about 22.8M shares of overhang, including an earnout unlock possibly from June 8, looms. Its 85.6% gross margin excludes rent and GPU depreciation, and underlying operating cash flow was about -$13M. x.com x.com x.com

BRUN

Ren

Head of AI, Ex-Product Manager, AI Supply-Chain Bottlenecks

4 Jun

BRUN

BRUN's sell-off misreads its lock-up while contracted backlog grew 12x in six months, and it stays FCF positive as NeoCloud peers burn cash. Per its S-4/A, only about 4.88 million locked shares unlock now, lifting float about 38%; the other 43.9 million stay locked until November 8, the real risk. Backlog rose from $120 million in December 2025 to $1.45 billion by June 1, guided to triple by year-end, helped by a $471.7 million take-or-pay Thinking Machines Lab deal. x.com

Asymmetric Bets

Hedge Fund Analyst, Private Company CFO, Idiosyncratic Stocks & Accelerating Fundamentals

27 Oct

AI agents' productivity over human labor should lift GPU demand and rates for neoclouds. The bottom looks in for CoreWeave, Nebius, Boost Run, Sharon AI and IREN. Gavin Baker says token prices can fall as revenue per GPU rises; paraphrasing Elon, even $38 per GPU-hour can pay off. CoreWeave's five-year fixed contracts may lag current rates; Boost Run has less capacity locked in. If SpaceX takes more growth, slower cash burn could rerate neoclouds, though smaller customers may pay less. x.com … Show more

GrowthTurtle

Data Science PhD & IEEE Fellow, Ex-Two Sigma

5 Jun

BRUN

Bruner's whole pitch is margin on leased GPU boxes, and that spread compresses the moment the actual owners decide to sell direct instead of wholesale. @ParadisLabs adds that it owns basically nothing, with leased GPUs in rented colocation, and sells only undifferentiated bare metal. x.com

Asymmetric Bets

Hedge Fund Analyst, Private Company CFO, Idiosyncratic Stocks & Accelerating Fundamentals

28 Oct

BRUN

Boost Run's delivery ahead of schedule and ability to capture higher current compute pricing strengthen its upside case. A release this week shows faster delivery, while management says it will not dilute with equity; guidance could imply $2B ARR exiting 2027. Unlike CoreWeave, it is not locked into stale contract terms. Short interest is 26%, even as the shares are down 75% from their highs and fundamentals improve. x.com

Philip

Founder & CEO of Intrinsiqq, Value & Growth Investor

27 Oct

NBIS

NVDA

WULF

FIG

CEG

Nvidia's CUDA retains developers, putting it among 12 stocks that could dominate the decade ahead. Nebius's GPU rental price rise signals demand; Fabrinet and Credo supply AI connectivity. DraftKings has betting scale; Microsoft has Azure and an OpenAI partnership; Figma anchors design work; Shopify powers stores. TeraWulf pivots power sites to AI leases; Constellation, the largest US nuclear operator, signs big-tech power deals; Meta spends on AI; Uber has autonomous-vehicle partnerships. x.com … Show more

PhotonBull

Equity Researcher, Co-Runner of Retail Club

3 Jun

BRUN

BRUN is not a buy right before its insider lock-up could expire. Per @saso_capital, the lock-up ends once BRUN closes at or above $12 on 20 of 30 trading days; with every close since its May 11 listing well above that, the earliest release is June 8, 2026. Insiders holding about 54M shares, including CEO Andrew Karos's 29.5M Class B shares, would then be free to sell. x.com x.com

Daave “3 and 30” Tepper

Institutional Endowment Investor

27 Oct

SMH

Financing announcements point to more accelerator demand, supporting semiconductors. About $200bn in announced Meta, Anthropic/Broadcom and SpaceX/Nvidia financing likely drives $400bn in XPU purchases. Data centers burn cash until lit, then cash flow 20-40% annually; AI spend rising from 0.1% to 0.5-1% of current payroll could balance the buildout if agents replace roles. Sustainable token demand is the bet, but smaller local models are the bigger risk, though not an immediate concern. x.com … Show more

Joel

Long-Term Growth Investor & Options Trader

26 Oct

Contracts, operating rental revenue and access to capital should let five neoclouds survive consolidation as debt tightens. IREN combines customer contracts with $14B of cash, committed GPU financing and prepayments; Nebius has over $40B of commitments and a new $3.5B Citi facility. Cipher has begun HPC rent and funded Stingray; TeraWulf has a long Anthropic lease and cash; Applied Digital has $36B of contracted base-term leases and 250MW operational. Musk warns many other neoclouds may fail. … Show more

Paradis

AI & Technology Investment Research

5 Jun

BRUN

Boost Run looks like a leasing company rather than a neocloud, left to compete on price forever. It owns little: GPUs are leased, data centers are rented colocation, and its 125 MW is mostly others' capacity. It sells undifferentiated bare metal, the layer even CoreWeave is leaving, and about 21% of FY25 revenue came from pointing idle GPUs at crypto networks amid a GPU shortage. Its customers are leftovers, and a $1.44B Dell commitment dwarfs about $90M raised, after a bridge loan default. … Show more

SuperLuckeee

Day & Swing Trader, Options/Futures & Credit Spreads

26 Oct

Contracted AI compute demand makes four AI infrastructure stocks worth buying at 52-week lows. Applied Digital has a $36B backlog and expects 600+ MW online within 12 months; Cipher Mining has $8.5B+ in AI leases with payments ramping; CleanSpark has a 20-year $6.6B lease and 1.8+ GW power portfolio; CoreWeave has a $104B backlog and raised its year-end ARR target to $18.5-19.5B. x.com x.com

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