David Prince
US Equity/Options Fund Manager, Mentor at T3 Live
Lululemon is no bargain at $99 and an 8x P/E, with revenue shrinking 4% and guidance slashed in two consecutive quarters. x.comÂ
Lululemon is probably going lower because sales and margins are imploding while inventory grows, and a new unproven CEO is coming in. Q3 guidance calls for revenue down 10-11%, North America down mid-teens and inventory up low single digits; full-year revenue should fall 5-7% with inventory up mid single digits. Even granting $6 of annualized EPS versus a ~$4 run rate, 12x for an off-trend retailer implies about $70, versus $100 after an 18% drop. x.com x.comÂ
Lululemon's 18% premarket drop looks like an overreaction given its improving margins. x.comÂ
Lululemon is not that tempting even after falling from $500 to about $100, because cheap does not mean buy. At about 1x sales the market prices in roughly zero growth, and analysts expect about $13 of EPS by 2029; at an 8x P/E that is only about $104. Agreeing with @HKIStrategies that the stock may simply move sideways for years, that would still mean losing money to inflation. x.com x.comÂ
Lululemon's business has not found its bottom, even after the stock fell nearly 18% after earnings to around $100. Revenue fell 4% to $2.42B, global comparable sales dropped 9% and Americas comps fell 12%. The bigger issue is the outlook, with FY26 revenue now expected to decline 5-7% and EPS guidance cut to $9.48-$9.73. x.comÂ
lululemon looks cheap at about 5x cash earnings, versus the 12x retailers usually get. Fair value sits at $221.42-$281.80, or 12x next year's cash earnings give or take 12%, leaving the $101.30 stock 54% below the low end. This is a levels-only read off reported earnings and revenue estimates, with no fundamental work. x.comÂ
Lululemon's guidance is the problem: the stock is dumping after mixed results that included a strong EPS beat. The chart had already signaled not to buy yet. x.com x.comÂ
Lululemon no longer looks worth owning after guiding both revenue and earnings down. Consumer discretionary is dead, and AI is holding up the entire economy, though for how long is unclear. Long-dated Treasuries are the better trade now, even as @epictrades1 quotes Michael Burry saying Lululemon is his largest position and he would buy more under $100. x.com x.comÂ
Lululemon trading at about 7x earnings is absurdly cheap, among the most mispriced stocks around. x.comÂ
Lululemon is a value trap with no sign its business decline is reversing. Comparable sales in the Americas fell 10% in Q2 2026, worse than Nike's, and management now expects full-year revenue to fall 5-7%, with consensus estimates likely to be cut. Earnings are projected to drop to $1.3 billion by 2028, about 30% below 2025. The trailing P/E of 9x looks cheap, but the forward P/E is higher at 11x as earnings fall, despite the stock losing 75% of its peak value. x.comÂ