Kioxia is the preferred NAND play over SanDisk because it has better technology. Kioxia grew out of Toshiba, the godfather of NAND, and SanDisk's people came from Toshiba too. x.com
Banana3
Professional Trader/Investor, Real Estate Developer, 25 Years’ Experience
Kioxia looks cheap, and better than SanDisk, because NAND may have more demand torque than DRAM over the next 12-18 months as KV cache and AI content storage demand grows. Kioxia is cheaper than SanDisk and has a better KV cache offering. NAND does carry bigger long-term China supply risks. x.com x.com
Kioxia is gaining NAND share as AI eats through storage, while Samsung and SK hynix shift resources to HBM. Staying focused on NAND has given it production costs 20-30% below competitors. Its quarterly operating profit hit $3.8B, passing Toyota as one of Japan's most profitable businesses, with about $15B of net income expected in 2027. Even after rising 2,000% in a year it trades at 8.9x forward earnings and is preparing a US listing. The key question is whether NAND pricing holds. x.com x.com
Kioxia's need to do a buyback is proof that the flash-memory boom is over. x.com
Kioxia, Japan's answer to SanDisk, plans a US share listing to widen its investor base and lift its corporate value, while NAND demand and pricing are soaring. x.com
Kioxia's absence from Robinhood filters out a cohort of boom-bust buyers and sellers. That is its most appealing feature here; it is the memory stock to add at these levels rather than Micron, SanDisk or SK hynix, despite reservations about its unsponsored ADR. x.com
Kioxia's 74% operating margin is a shortage premium with an expiration date set by its own investor deck. AI inference storage demand is real, but management's supply-demand chart shows NAND returning toward balance by late 2027, and its long-term model targets mid-20% operating margins. The stock is about 12x the annualized peak quarter but roughly triple that on the company's normalized plan. The bull case: hyperscaler contracts and the inference-storage tier keep margins structurally higher. … Show more
Kioxia is the cheaper way to play the memory boom: about 40% cheaper than SanDisk with 1.5x the market share, and since it reports a quarter later, its margins are about to jump from 59% to over 75%. Micron's 85% margins show how strong the cycle is. x.com
Kioxia's next-12-month growth is likely to far surpass that of other major memory makers, yet it trades cheaper with no clear reason, possibly even below SK hynix's US ADR. @CeleritasRe notes it is doing a buyback and is probably the only name on the list that could credibly attract a takeover bid. x.com x.com
Samsung's and SK hynix's NAND franchises are threatened by YMTC, which should pass Kioxia first. YMTC's IPO filing shows an 84% gross margin on bare NAND die, above 70% on finished SSDs, as the shortage makes the low end the most profitable. It is #3 in shipments at 14%, level with Kioxia, and its RMB 33bn IPO funds capacity to pass Samsung and SK by end-2027 as they starve NAND capex for HBM. China's self-sufficiency push can speed its eSSD qualification; the shortage keeps margins fat for now. … Show more
Sandisk's fast-growing data-center revenue strengthens its case among memory names with upside. Data-center revenue rose 61% quarter over quarter; revenue of $11.03B, adjusted EPS of $49.51 and adjusted gross margin of 85.1% all exceeded estimates. For upside among Micron, Sandisk and Kioxia, Micron ranks first, then Sandisk, then Kioxia, until further guidance. x.com x.com