Favoring the Nasdaq 100 over small caps remains right because the digital economy has changed market structure, and AI is accelerating that shift. Fading QQQ against IWM has been the widowmaker trade in US equities since the iPhone launch. The Magnificent 7 are breaking out to new all-time highs as AI enters a consumer-agent stage, while small caps suffer from fears over rates and oil. Breadth warnings are everywhere, but the structure has changed: adapt or die. x.com 

Nasdaq should head higher through earnings season because big tech is sure to increase capex. @JonahLupton notes possible downside support around $684, the VWAP from the March lows and the 100-day average, with $652 next if that fails. x.com 

QQQ's remaining earnings, macro and election hurdles set up one more dip to punish late chasers. The index looks good and is pricing in some good news today, but Amazon, Intel and SanDisk earnings plus PCE and GDP arrive tomorrow, followed by AMD earnings and elections Tuesday. Expect one more, probably modest, dip Wednesday or Thursday next week before November's upward seasonality takes effect. x.com 

The Nasdaq 100 already effectively prices in a severe semiconductor recession. QQQ trades at about 20 times 2027 EPS versus a 10-year average forward P/E near 25; halving 2027 estimates for Nvidia, Broadcom, AMD, Micron, Lam Research and Applied Materials would lift that only to 24.5. If the market instead traded at 20 times in that scenario, downside would be about 20%. Capex seems unlikely to be cut materially unless growth at AI labs such as Anthropic decelerates dramatically. x.com 

The Nasdaq 100 is suited to be a core holding thanks to having the largest size and liquidity among top tech ETFs, even though its roughly 19-22% annualized 10-year return trails the leaders. Semiconductor ETFs topped the decade at around 35-38% a year. x.com 

The Nasdaq 100 is teetering ahead of earnings from Microsoft, Meta and Amazon, and more capex is unlikely to make those names rally; they will have to say something different. The next support is the $657.16 volume point of control, 4.4% below. x.com 

QQQ's resilience is the bullish signal: it has held the proper levels through every headline this year that would have tanked a weaker market. Even when CPI came in hot and rate-hike odds hit 90%, stocks were green across the board, showing that what is priced in matters more than the news. QQQ continues to hold above its weekly support zone, avoiding a full risk-off scenario. x.com  x.com 

The Nasdaq closed at an all-time high, showing that selling after the war began was a mistake. Stocks keep rising throughout Trump's term, and in the end only those who hold assets win. x.com 

The Nasdaq-100 looks set for a roughly 7% drop over the next month and a half, driven by expected election turmoil. The 10-year Treasury yield is at 5.2% and the dollar index at 101, and the setup rhymes with October 2018. The main risk is a flip higher from here or a move 3% above the previous all-time high; a short-term rip before the decline is possible amid month-end flows. x.com  x.com  x.com  x.com 

The Nasdaq 100's drop on OpenAI's scary news is an overreaction, and mega caps remain very healthy. AI bubble fears let market makers scare retail and buy behind closed doors. Once the index tests 736-738 as its 21-day moving average catches up, it should take off again toward 800, led by Meta, Alphabet, Amazon, Broadcom, Nvidia, AMD and TSMC. x.com  x.com