Rocket Lab's valuation already more than bakes in space data centers. At a $74B market cap, over 74 times sales, Rocket Lab had better be building more than just data centers in space. This is a call on the price, not on the underlying quality of the business. x.com  x.com 

Rocket Lab still looks ridiculously expensive at 29 times forward sales against SpaceX at 22 times, even after a 65% fall. At 22 times, Rocket Lab would be roughly $38, and SpaceX would still be the pick. SpaceX also has better forward guidance; Rocket Lab's negative adjusted EBITDA makes sales multiples the valuation yardstick. x.com  x.com  x.com  x.com 

Rocket Lab's selloff looks like overdone panic: it has extraordinary management and an effectively unlimited addressable market ahead, so discounts are good. x.com 

Rocket Lab is still expensive at 30x next year's sales even after falling 60%. x.com 

Rocket Lab's roughly $80 billion valuation, including its newly announced $3 billion dilution, would require $3-4 billion in profit to be reasonable, and there is no scenario where it earns $3 billion within three years. The market can stay illogical longer than expected, so it could still run 50% before crashing 80%; the same applies to AST SpaceMobile. x.com  x.com 

Good SpaceX earnings could help Rocket Lab lead the new-space sector higher with a rally as violent as its capitulation. Rocket Lab is the sector leader outside SpaceX; its RSI is extremely oversold, the lower Bollinger band is overstretched and MACD's negative divergence is subsiding. Three upside gaps lie at $55.25-59.18, $64.22-65.71 and $73.11-74.76. The highest should fill before year-end, though the exact date is hard to predict. x.com  x.com 

Repeated Neutron delays undermine the premium on Rocket Lab stock when execution keeps slipping. The company does not live or die by Neutron, but 50x sales was unjustified; even at 26x 2027 sales, a legitimate price suggests another 50% decline. x.com  x.com 

Rocket Lab's valuation has gotten ahead of itself, and about $50 a share, or $30 billion, is a more sensible price. Projecting revenue several years out with strong execution and applying 20x sales is a useful check, but launching rockets is hard and demands a sufficient margin of safety; at 15x sales instead of 20x, fair value falls further. The stock may never get to $50, since stocks can stay expensive for long periods. x.com  x.com  x.com  x.com 

Rocket Lab should double by June 2026 if SpaceX IPOs at around $1.5T, because as the clear number two with similar capabilities it is valued at only $38B, a gap that looks far too big. At $1.7T, SpaceX would trade at over 200x its roughly $8B in EBITDA, as reported on the All-In podcast, an insane multiple. x.com  x.com  x.com 

Rocket Lab and AST SpaceMobile are not buys because their sales multiples are too high, even after the selloff. Rocket Lab trades at 30x sales after a 14% drawdown, while AST SpaceMobile trades at 138x sales. x.com