Oracle looks buyable for now because the large financing and equity raises feared for next year no longer look imminent. New Mexico commissioners say there were no talks to alter Project Jupiter's power agreement and doubt a majority will approve a change; Stargate may be over a year behind. PIMCO has left AI data-center bonds, which still threatens funding. This is probably a bottom until the AI bubble pops; wait until $200 to short. x.com  x.com  x.com  x.com  x.com  x.com  x.com  x.com 

Oracle, the weaker performer, is likely to see the risks of building data centers priced into its stock in the coming months. Per @KobeissiLetter, Oracle fell 5% after declaring force majeure on a massive New Mexico data center, reportedly to shield itself from rapidly rising project costs. x.com 

Hardware is squeezing software as enterprises redirect budgets to scarce servers, GPUs and storage, favoring semiconductors over software. IBM's Q2 revenue of $17.2B missed its $17.9B target, and its CEO said clients moved software and IT consulting budgets to secure rising-priced hardware. Microsoft, ServiceNow and Salesforce face near-term pressure while Dell and Micron benefit. Aehr Test's beat and raised guidance counter claims the chip cycle is dead. x.com 

AI data-center investment needs outside AI spending to rise 33-fold by 2030 to break even. Hyperscalers hold $4.5 trillion in debt and future liabilities, but corporate and SaaS token spending outside circular deals is only $60 billion annualized against a $2 trillion break-even ARR. SK hynix says memory shortages may last until 2031, raising capex and CoreWeave default risk; Mitsubishi warns turbines are booked through 2031 and cost 400% more, delaying CoreWeave and Oracle data centers. x.com  … Show more

Oracle's declaration of force majeure on a huge data center under construction in New Mexico signals trouble with the project's rising expenses. Oracle is questioning the project's growing costs, and the stock fell more than 5% on the news. x.com 

Oracle looks like the Lehman of the hyperscalers in a subprime-style debt bust around the AI data-center build-out funded by private credit, private equity and bank lending. Per HedgieMarkets, Oracle sent a force majeure notice on Project Jupiter, its New Mexico data center for OpenAI's Stargate, after the state twice denied permits for a gas pipeline the site needs. Oracle wants the right to delay payments if it misses its 2028 opening, and $18 billion of project loans trade at 89 to 91 cents. … Show more

Semiconductors face a negative signal from the first call of peak AI capex. Per Wallstengine, Oracle expects its AI data-center spending to peak in FY27-FY28 and decline in FY29. Oracle's FY27-FY28 runs from June 2026 through May 2028. x.com 

Leasing data centers reduces Oracle's capital intensity and gets GPUs online faster, shortening the path to self-funding growth. Its FY29 free-cash-flow guide is $30B+, and Oracle and CoreWeave each have at least 1.5GW live while the next-largest neoclouds have only a few hundred MW at most despite claiming self-building can scale faster. Oracle's financial risks are declining: leverage is down about 0.75x from its peak earlier this year. x.com  x.com 

Timely delivery is key to AI data-center operators' success. Microsoft said at least $5B of GPU-as-a-service capacity was late in Q1. CoreWeave had no known new Q1 delivery due, and its known delay was too small; Nebius and IREN reported delivering theirs, making them almost certainly not responsible. Nscale's Texas timing fits, but it said all Microsoft tranches were delivered; the supplier remains unknown. x.com 

Global resistance to data centers could constrain December cloud growth despite the longer agentic AI buildout. Some estimates say roughly 120 US projects worth over $130B face delays; opposition spans the UK, EU, Australia and Malaysia too. Microsoft, Alphabet and Amazon remain favored, though guidance is at risk. CoreWeave, Nebius and IREN may bounce hardest short term but look weak longer term as funding tightens; Elon Musk expects extensive neo-cloud consolidation. x.com  x.com  x.com  x.com