Oracle, the weaker performer, is likely to see the risks of building data centers priced into its stock in the coming months. Per @KobeissiLetter, Oracle fell 5% after declaring force majeure on a massive New Mexico data center, reportedly to shield itself from rapidly rising project costs. x.com 

Heavy AI-related borrowing with little to show for it is pressuring Oracle, IREN and Nebius shares. These stocks are beginning to trend lower. x.com 

Oracle looks buyable for now because the large financing and equity raises feared for next year no longer look imminent. New Mexico commissioners say there were no talks to alter Project Jupiter's power agreement and doubt a majority will approve a change; Stargate may be over a year behind. PIMCO has left AI data-center bonds, which still threatens funding. This is probably a bottom until the AI bubble pops; wait until $200 to short. x.com  x.com  x.com  x.com  x.com  x.com  x.com  x.com 

The debt behind Oracle's capex is drawing credit-market concern. Its five-year credit-default swap spread has risen past 300 basis points. x.com 

AI semiconductor equipment stocks are likely heading for a sizeable air pocket as data-center delays become far more common. Many underestimate the current delays and freeze in Texas, which are likely to leave lots of idle components sitting in the supply chain. x.com 

Oracle is worth accumulating because demand for its products keeps growing, as its backlog shows, and the AI revolution has years left. Its services are used by a large share of Fortune 500 companies, and betting against Larry Ellison is unwise. The situation is messy: Ellison pledged 36% of his Oracle holdings, $9.2B, as loan collateral, Oracle invoked force majeure on its own data center while insisting it is on schedule, and the stock can still fall further. x.com  x.com 

Oracle's OpenAI exposure makes buying its shares here a bet too big to take. x.com  x.com 

Oracle's big rally on its RPO jump was fake, and the only data since show OpenAI writing checks its business can't cash. The pop came on an earnings miss and took 57 days to undo; the stock then fell another 46% and has dropped after every report since. Within two weeks, a force majeure dismissed as a nothing burger gave way to word that its cash-incinerating key customer has $20B less revenue than due diligence assumed. Shorting in size is still hard. x.com  x.com  x.com 

Oracle's projected free-cash-flow turnaround challenges the market's fear that data-center spending will bring insolvency or years of cash burn for little return. Oracle expects positive FCF in the second half of FY28, at least $30B in FY29 and self-funded growth by FY29 as capex declines. Already undervalued, Oracle is seeing a lift; the clearer profitability path could lift other data-center operators too. x.com 

Oracle's balance sheet and customer risks outweigh its slide to near a 52-week low. Heavy debt, more dilution, round-tripping, data-center delays and heavy OpenAI concentration all weigh on the stock. x.com