Dr. Stoxx
Stock Trader & Author, Oxford DPhil, Trading Education
Individual space stocks outside SpaceX look hard to get excited about, because a huge share of the sector's liquidity and attention increasingly seems set to concentrate in SpaceX alone. That reshapes the risk/reward of owning AST SpaceMobile, BlackSky, Firefly, Lumen, Redwire, Rocket Lab and Satellogic. x.comÂ
Space stocks should all run eventually, with smaller names running more, so Rocket Lab and AST SpaceMobile may be the plays in the industry. SpaceX will likely bottom after its lock-ups expire and then make a long-term run, making a case for owning all three. x.comÂ
Space stocks could regain high-beta flows as SpaceX lockups end and a probable late-November Anthropic IPO threatens AI stocks, much as SpaceX's IPO hurt space names. Hedge funds are overexposed to the Magnificent Seven and underexposed or max short low-quality high beta; falling rates and toppy oil could make the rotation painful for them through 2027. AST SpaceMobile could benefit as intermittent service triggers agreements and Blue Origin possibly returns to the pad in six weeks. x.com x.comÂ
Investors rotating into cheaper stocks with more upside should ultimately benefit Rocket Lab and AST SpaceMobile. Both have already suffered major drawdowns. x.comÂ
EchoStar offers right-tail exposure to SpaceX with significant downside protection, anchored by the stick value of its hard spectrum assets. x.comÂ
Other space stocks look less attractive as liquidity concentrates in SpaceX. StonkChris expects most to face a tougher long-term outlook, though some may still win; the visible flow of liquidity into one name supports that concern. x.comÂ
The space-sector selloff dragged down by SPCX puts the wrong discount on AST SpaceMobile, Rocket Lab and Redwire, because SPCX validates the investment case rather than weakening it. The space economy is projected to be one of the fastest-growing industries of the next 15 years, from $630 billion in 2026 to $1.5 trillion in 2030 and $2 trillion by 2040. The biggest opportunities arrive when good news creates the wrong reaction. x.comÂ
Virgin Galactic is vaporware that has burned retail investors, while SpaceX is a much better space play. Investors selling Virgin Galactic are not mistaking it for SpaceX; they are recognizing that difference. x.comÂ
Listed space stocks were sold because SpaceX's IPO vacuumed up the sector's marginal dollar, not because their contracts stopped. AST SpaceMobile launched the three largest comm arrays ever, with 60 carriers signed; Rocket Lab booked $663M from the Space Force in nine days; Planet Labs' backlog exceeds annual revenue; BlackSky printed its first EBITDA-positive quarter; Firefly, a Golden Dome interceptor selectee, trades below its IPO price; and Redwire's revenue rose 90%. x.comÂ
Space stocks need AST SpaceMobile to launch its satellites, as the market trades the whole sector together regardless of each company's progress or headwinds. Activity should pick up again once space-stock option chains, which have largely died off, wake back up. @jonathan1328531 expects only delays and no catalyst over the next four weeks, with a slide to the low $50s or $40s. x.com x.com x.com x.comÂ